Severe Thunderstorm Warning 259, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
258 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE CONVECTIVE TIMING/TRENDS/PLACEMENT
AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH MID WEEK. FOR THIS EVENING...I
EXPECT MAIN AREA OF STORMS TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST HALF TO THIRD OF
FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE STILL RECOVERING FROM LAST NIGHTS STORMS SO
CONVECTION SHOULDNT BE AFFECTING OUR CWA UNTIL AROUND 5 PM OR SO.
SOME 1-2 INCH HAIL IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH A FEW 60 MPH GUSTS WITH
INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS. OVERNIGHT...FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERN
IOWA WITH A STRONGER S/W NOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. MCS POSSIBLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT SVR AND FF THREAT SHOULD BE ISOLATED. LOOKING
AHEAD...SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON RECENT TREND OF SHOVING
OUTFLOW AND PRECIP FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. SPC HAS SHOVED SLT RISK
INTO FAR SOUTHERN IA FOR MONDAY. WL KEEP LOW POPS IN SOUTH AND EAST
FOR STORMS ALONG COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING...BUT THE BOUNDARY
AND SVR THREAT SHOULD BE IN MISSOURI DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WL HANG ON TO POPS SOUTH TO COVER GFS
SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THAT MODEL IS ALSO TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH
PRECIP.

A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO THE STATE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LOCALLY 3 TO 4...WITH SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD (THURS-SUN) SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY AFT/NITE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

KINNEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
340 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-141100-
BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-
EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-
KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-STORY-TAMA-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT-
340 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN IOWA...ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 30.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN IOWA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH THE
MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS TO 60 MPH.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN
IOWA LATER MONDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH EACH ROUND.  THE
GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE FROM TUESDAY MID AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE A POTENTIAL THREAT AS WELL. 1 TO 2 INCH
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES.  LISTEN
FOR LATER STATEMENTS CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

IAZ057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-141100-
ADAIR-ADAMS-APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-
GUTHRIE-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-
RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE-
340 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN IOWA...SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 30.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN IOWA THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED STRAIGHT
LINE WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
AFTER 4 AM...THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA FROM
NORTHERN IOWA. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WHICH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH
THE MORNING MONDAY IN SOUTHERN IOWA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH EACH ROUND.  THE
GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE FROM TUESDAY MID AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.  HEAVY RAINFALL IS A POTENTIAL THREAT AS WELL. 1 TO 2
INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES.
LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY FROM 4 TO 10 AM MONDAY. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

KINNEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
857 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

IAZ057-058-070-071-081-092-140256-

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #461 THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES
OF...

  ADAIR                 ADAMS                 AUDUBON
  CASS                  GUTHRIE               TAYLOR

WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM.