Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1208 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL TRANSLATE EAST.
PRIMARILY AN ELEVATED THREAT NORTH TO MORE OF A SFC-BASED THREAT
SOUTH. UPDATED GRIDS TO CATEGORICAL WORDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WC
AND SW. QPF BEEFED UP FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SHOULD
SEE WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 1.5 INCH AMOUNTS CENTRAL AND SOUTH WITH
HEAVIER AMOUNTS UNDER THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. DO NOT BUY THE GFS
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BULLSEYE. BOTH THE GFS AND RUC HAVE AN AXIS OF
CONVECTION FARTHER NW THAN ETA. PROBABLY END UP SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN
THE TWO...WITH THE FIRST BATCH OVER SE NEB MOVING ENE...WHILE MORE
ACTION REDEVELOPS FARTHER SOUTHWEST AND AFFECTS THE SOUTH LATER ON
THIS EVENING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...TORNADO WATCH WEST OF A WRIGHT TO
TAYLOR COUNTY LINE.

&&

GRAMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1256 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

IAZ004>007-015>017-026>028-037>039-048>050-131200-
BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HANCOCK-
HARDIN-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-STORY-TAMA-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-
1256 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA
NORTH OF A POCAHONTAS TO AMES TO TAMA LINE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THE NIGHT. THERE IS A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
EACH ROUND...HOWEVER THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. WATCH FOR LATER
STATEMENTS CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING...AND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

IAZ060>062-072>075-082>086-093>097-131200-
APPANOOSE-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-
MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE-
1256 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA...
SOUTH AND EAST OF A DES MOINES TO CRESTON LINE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT. THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY
ALONG THE U.S. HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDOR FARTHER SOUTH TO THE MISSOURI
BORDER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
EACH ROUND...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTHEAST OF A
CORNING TO GRINNELL LINE. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.  OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.  WATCH FOR LATER STATEMENTS
CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM 3 PM UNTIL 11 PM THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

IAZ023>025-033>036-044>047-057>059-070-071-081-092-131200-
ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-
GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HUMBOLDT-POCAHONTAS-SAC-TAYLOR-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT-
1256 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA...
SOUTH AND WEST OF A POCAHONTAS TO WEBSTER CITY TO BEDFORD LINE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER
WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALL BE THREATS THIS AFTERNOON. MORE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI
BORDER WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
EACH ROUND. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE. WATCH FOR LATER STATEMENTS CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED FROM 2 PM UNTIL 11 PM THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

GRAMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1201 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

IAZ023>025-033>036-044>047-057>059-070-071-081-092-130000-

...TORNADO WATCH #446 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR THE
COUNTIES OF...

  ADAIR                 ADAMS                 AUDUBON
  BOONE                 CALHOUN               CARROLL
  CASS                  CRAWFORD              DALLAS
  GREENE                GUTHRIE               HAMILTON
  HUMBOLDT              POCAHONTAS            SAC
  TAYLOR                WEBSTER               WRIGHT