Tornado Warning 11, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
145 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

.DISCUSSION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE
THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. CLOUDS AND FOG ARE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS NERN MN AND
NWRN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND DO NOT EXPECT IT TO LIFT ANYTIME
SOON WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND EASTERLY FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEY HAVE
BEEN ISOLATED AND RELATIVELY WEAK.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EAST CNTRL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR FORECAST AREA...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY FROM ELEVATED CAPE. HOWEVER DUE TO WEAK TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A RISK OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. AFTER THE LOW AND COLD FRONT HAVE PASSES...THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT WILL END...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WHICH SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
CWA. HOWEVER THE RAIN WILL BE MORE STEADY ACROSS OUR MINNESOTA ZONES
DUE TO LIFT ASSOCIATED FROM THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE.

ON SATURDAY THE LOW WILL BE TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND DPVA...RAIN SHOULD
CONTINUE IN THE MORNING...THEN BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON. BY SATURDAY EVENING...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH MONDAY.

.DLH...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

BERDES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1230 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-301230-
ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-BURNETT-C. ST. LOUIS-CROW WING-DOUGLAS-IRON-
KOOCHICHING-N. AITKIN-N. CASS-N. ITASCA-N. LAKE/N. COOK-N. ST. LOUIS-
PINE-PRICE-S. AITKIN-S. CASS-S. COOK/LAKESHORE-S. ITASCA-
S. LAKE/LAKESHORE-S. ST. LOUIS/CARLTON-SAWYER-WASHBURN-
1230 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS ALL OF NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM MCGRATH MN TO KERRICK MN TO EDGEWATER WI. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF THE MODERATE RISK
AREA AND TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CASS LAKE TO ELY TO GRAND
MARAIS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES...LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FT ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR
BOATERS ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
EXPECTED. SEE THE NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST ISSUED BY THE DULUTH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

STRONG NORTH WINDS WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 3 TO 7 FT ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS FOR BOATERS ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS EXPECTED. SEE THE NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST ISSUED BY
THE DULUTH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

...SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS MAY NEED ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DLH

BERDES