Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
342 PM CDT WED JUL 21 2004

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERN WILL REMAIN ON TSTMS TONIGHT.

AN EARLY FALL PATTERN IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL USA.
UPR LVL TROF IS DEEPENING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
NORTHLAND.  A 993MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS WRN ONTARIO...HAS A STRONG
ACTIVE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS EXTRM SRN MANITOBA.
TSTMS ARE FIRING ALONG THE FRONT AND ARE CROSSING THE N DAKOTA
BORDER. UPR LVL JET ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO FRONT SO DO NOT
EXPECT ASSCD TSTMS TO MAKE IT COMPLETELY THROUGH OUR CWA THIS
EVENING.  TROF BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL SWING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
AND HAVE NOTED SHOWERS WITH THIS IN FCST.  ANOTHER AREA OF
CONCERN IS W CNTRL TO SW MINNESOTA WHERE SEVERE TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING.  WILL KEEP AN EYE ON SW PORTION OF OUR CWA FOR THESE
STORMS.
TOMORROW...COOLER AND DRIER WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE WITH
DEEPENING TROUGH.  SOME DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR WITH ASSCD COOLER
AIR AND SFC HEATING FOR CU FIELDS ACROSS THE NORTH.  HAVE
INCLUDED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS ARROWHEAD AS IT WILL LIE
UNDER RGN OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER LIFT.
TOMORROW EVENING...CLEARING SKIES AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS NRN MINNESOTA.

EXTENDED...PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

.DLH...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

LT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
401 PM CDT WED JUL 21 2004

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-221230-
ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-BURNETT-C. ST. LOUIS-CROW WING-DOUGLAS-IRON-
KOOCHICHING-N. AITKIN-N. CASS-N. ITASCA-N. LAKE/N. COOK-N. ST. LOUIS-
PINE-PRICE-S. AITKIN-S. CASS-S. COOK/LAKESHORE-S. ITASCA-
S. LAKE/LAKESHORE-S. ST. LOUIS/CARLTON-SAWYER-WASHBURN-
401 PM CDT WED JUL 21 2004

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  THE AREA OF MOST CONCERN INCLUDES THE
BRAINERD LAKES REGION AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...THE TWIN PORTS AREA
AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DLH

LJT