Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
344 AM CDT MON JUN 7 2004

.DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERNS ARE ON TSRA POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT 48
HRS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MOSAIC OF AREA 88DS INDICATED A
DECAYING MCS OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF MN. 06Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACED
A WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO CENTRAL WI. THIS WARM FRONT IS
MOVING NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AND APPEARS TO HAVE PASSED BRD...RZN
AND PBH ATTM. -TSRA ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF THIS WARM FRONT IN NE
MN AND NW WI AND MOVING NE INTO LS. THIS WARM FRONT WILL BE NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA BY 18Z TODAY. NORTH OF THE FRONT
SCATTERED -TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN AREA OF BETTER SFC
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ATMOSPHERE IS CAPPED DUE
TO GOOD PUSH OF WAA. THIS AREA WILL REMAINED CAPPED UNTIL ABOUT 21Z
THIS AFTERNOON WHEN COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WHEN CAP
IS BROKEN...ANTICIPATE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE TSRA. ETA MODEL
SFC BASED CAPE REACHES ABOVE 3000 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR. AGREE
WITH THE SPC PLACEMENT OF MUCH OF THE FA INTO MODERATE RISK. SEE
SWODY1 FOR DETAILS.

COLD FRONT PROGGED TO SLOWLY CRAWL THROUGH NE MN AND BE NEAR DLH BY
06Z...AND ALMOST COME TO A STOP BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE FRONT APPEARS TO
BE ORIENTED FROM THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTH SHORE OF LS THROUGH DLH
TO NEAR AIT. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES AOA 1000 J/KG AND SFC BASED LIS TO -3 C. HAVE
ATTEMPTED TO TREND TSRA ACCORDINGLY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY
IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR NW WI BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION
OF TSRA AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY.

SFC HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT APPEARED TO HAVE CLEARED THE FA STALLS OUT OVER
CENTRAL MN INTO NW WI. HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF TSRA IN THIS AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH FINALLY WINS OUT ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING AN END
TO THE PCPN. WILL LINGER A LOW POP IN FAR SOUTHERN TIER IN NW WI
DUE TO PROXIMITY OF WEAKENING H85 TROF.

&&

.DLH...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

GSF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED EXPIRATION DATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
700 AM CDT MON JUN 7 2004

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-081230-
ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-BURNETT-C. ST. LOUIS-CROW WING-DOUGLAS-IRON-
KOOCHICHING-N. AITKIN-N. CASS-N. ITASCA-N. LAKE/N. COOK-N. ST. LOUIS-
PINE-PRICE-S. AITKIN-S. CASS-S. COOK/LAKESHORE-S. ITASCA-
S. LAKE/LAKESHORE-S. ST. LOUIS/CARLTON-SAWYER-WASHBURN-
700 AM CDT MON JUN 7 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A MAJORITY OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND A PORTION OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE
MODERATE RISK AREA IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INDUS TO
BEMIDJI...TO ST. CLOUD...TRADE RIVER...TO ODANAH. TORNADOES...LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE THE HAZARDS IN THIS AREA. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHERE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE RIGHT OF A
LINE FROM BAYFIELD TO SOLON SPRINGS...AND PINE CITY ON TUESDAY. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED AFTER 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON FROM
INTERNATIONAL FALLS TO NEAR BRAINERD...ELSEWHERE IN NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AROUND 6 PM...AND IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AROUND 7 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DLH

GSF