Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
310 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY/S FORECAST FOCUS IS ON NEXT TWO SYSTEMS. FIRST...COLD FRONT
RIGHT ON SCHEDULE WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS JUST AHEAD OF IT
FROM BDE-FFM AND JUST MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. NOT MUCH MOISTURE ATTM...BUT SOME GOOD WAA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IN RRQ OF JET. EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS TO MOVE OVER REST OF CWA WITH FRONT THIS MORNING. CANADIAN
HIGH TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON..SO NO MORE RAIN UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT THERE...BUT KEPT CHCS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GOING FOR REST OF AREA AS FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVR NWRN WI.
LOLVL WAA DOESNT BEGIN UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...BUT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH UPLIFT ACROSS FRONT AND PVA TO KEEP CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN FCST THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT
THEM TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SLOWLY MONDAY.

IN THERE SHORT TERM ...THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...THEY DO DIVERGE A BIT BY MONDAY WITH MAX PRECIP AREA
WITH ETA A BIT FARTHER NORTH. BUT IN ALL...THEY ALL POINT AT A
SUNDAY NIGHT OF SOME GOOD RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT.
&&

.DLH...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
700 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-171230-
ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-BURNETT-C. ST. LOUIS-CROW WING-DOUGLAS-IRON-
KOOCHICHING-N. AITKIN-N. CASS-N. ITASCA-N. LAKE/N. COOK-N. ST. LOUIS-
PINE-PRICE-S. AITKIN-S. CASS-S. COOK/LAKESHORE-S. ITASCA-
S. LAKE/LAKESHORE-S. ST. LOUIS/CARLTON-SAWYER-WASHBURN-
730 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 2004

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL TONIGHT. THE SLIGHT CHANCE AREA IS
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BRAINERD THROUGH MOOSE LAKE TO HURLEY WI. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTER 800 PM.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY OVER NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
AND THE TWIN PORTS TO HINCKLEY AREAS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE TWIN PORTS AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DLH

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