Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
225 PM CDT SUN MAY 9 2004

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON SEVERE TSRA POTENTIAL
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN TSRA PROBABILITY THROUGH THURSDAY. 17Z
MSAS SFC PRESSURE PLOT PLACED THE MAIN LOW CENTER NEAR CYBV IN EAST
CENTRAL MANITOBA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM THIS LOW TO A
SECONDARY LOW CENTER IN EAST CENTRAL SD. A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED IN
WESTERN ND. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED A SHROUD OF CLOUDS COVERING
THE FA. THIS HAS KEPT ATMOSPHERE OVER THE FA FROM DESTABILIZING MUCH
DUE TO LACK OF SFC HEATING. LAKE BREEZE FROM LS HAS KEPT COOLER AND
DRIER AIR OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD TO THE TWIN PORTS. MOSAIC OF AREA
88DS INDICATES TSRA DEVELOPING OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE FA IN NW
WI. DECAYING TSRA IN NW MN PROVIDING PLENTIFUL RA. LATEST RUC HAS
THE FA CONTINUING TO DESTABILIZE AS H85 LLJ ARRIVES AND PUSHES
WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA...ERODING THE CLOUD COVER AND RAISING SFC
TEMPS. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE LATEST MSAS AND LAPS SFC DATA.
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
NW ND WILL AID IN TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. SEE LATEST SWODY1
FOR MORE DETAILS. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE GRIDS/ZONES.
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WEAKENS OVERNIGHT AND ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO
STABILIZE AS H85 LLJ SHIFTS E INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE
TRENDED THE POPS TO TIME THE ENDING OF THE TSRA FROM NW TO SE AS
THE COLD FRONT IS PUSHED THROUGH THE FA BY THE SHORT WAVE.

A BREAK IN THE TSRA ACTION OCCURS ON MONDAY AS SFC HIGH/DRYING MOVE
OVER THE FA. CAA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. WARM START IN SFC TEMPS
IN THE MORNING...THEN TEMPS NOT RECOVERING MUCH AS STRATOCU
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SOME CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NW. SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG SFC LOW PULLS OUT OF
THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DRY AIR REMAINS OVER THE FA
IN THE EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF LS. H85 JET ARRIVES IN MN BY TUESDAY
MORNING. BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF PROGGED TO
REACH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA ON LLJ. EXPECTED ELEVATED TSRA
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION WITH SFC BASED
TSRA OVER THE SOUTH. SFC BASED CAPE FROM THE ETA REACHES TO AROUND
1500 J/KG BY 00Z WEDNESDAY IN THIS AREA. WITH WARM INTRUSION...RAPID
DE-STABILIZATION POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN FA BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEVERE TSRA. HAVE MENTIONED IN THE HWO...BUT NOT IN THE
GRIDS/ZONES FOR NOW.

ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN UNSTABLE OVER THE FA THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL TROF BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
EAVE THE FA IN WARM...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. TSRA CHANCES
MENTIONED EACH DAY. SFC HIGH THEN MOVES OVER THE FA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.DLH...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

GSF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1150 AM CDT SUN MAY 9 2004

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-101230-
ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-BURNETT-C. ST. LOUIS-CROW WING-DOUGLAS-IRON-
KOOCHICHING-N. AITKIN-N. CASS-N. ITASCA-N. LAKE/N. COOK-N. ST. LOUIS-
PINE-PRICE-S. AITKIN-S. CASS-S. COOK/LAKESHORE-S. ITASCA-
S. LAKE/LAKESHORE-S. ST. LOUIS/CARLTON-SAWYER-WASHBURN-
1150 AM CDT SUN MAY 9 2004

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS
DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE AREA MOST
LIKELY FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PEQUOT LAKES
TO MAHTOWA TO GLIDDEN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DLH

GSF

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