Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Dodge City, KS

May 16, 2004Pawnee County, Stafford County, Kansas

NWS Dodge City, KS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 16, 2004, 10:54 PM CDT for Pawnee County, Stafford County, Kansas. It was in force for 66 min. 5 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: May 16, 2004, 10:54 PM CDT (03:54 UTC)
Expired: May 17, 2004, 12:00 AM CDT
In force: 66 min
Issued by: NWS Dodge City, KS
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Pawnee County, KS, Stafford County, KS

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where
May 16, 11:00 PM CDT	HAIL 1	6 W Larned, KS
May 16, 11:04 PM CDT	HAIL 1.25	Larned, KS
May 16, 11:04 PM CDT	HAIL 1.25	Larned, KS
May 16, 11:04 PM CDT	HAIL 1.25	Larned, KS
May 16, 11:30 PM CDT	TSTM WND GST 60	Seward, KS

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 4 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 6 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 3.9 hours before the alert went out and 92 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 695 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -190 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1746 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 62 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 182 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 375 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 2.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KDDC 170354
SVRDDC
KSC145-185-170500-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1050 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN PAWNEE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
  STAFFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT

* AT 1047 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR   
  FRIZELL...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LARNED THROUGH  11 PM CDT
  RADIUM AROUND 1115 PM
  SEWARD AROUND 1120 PM
  ST. JOHN AROUND 1135 PM CDT
  STAFFORD AROUND 1150 PM CDT

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE 
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD 
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A 
SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3834 9930 3802 9927 3802 9892 3783 9851
          3824 9850 3824 9903 3833 9904
$$

BURGERT

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 16, 3:36 PM CDT, 7 hours 18 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 16, 3:36 PM CDT, 7 hours 18 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
336 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

ISOLATED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE AS OF 245 PM.
SO 20-30 POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
PUSH A FRONT INTO CENTRAL KS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND INTO SW KS BY
EVENING. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AND THESE COULD BE SEVERE.
THE ETA HAS BEEN MIXING THE MOISTURE OUT TOO MUCH IN THE
WARM SECTOR LATELY, SO INSTABILITY MAY BE HIGHER THAN THIS MODEL
SUGGESTS. STORMS SHOULD HELP PUSH THIS FRONT FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THE ETA/GFS SUGGEST MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. WE FOLLOWED THE
UKMET WHICH SHOWS THE FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM AMA TO END TO CNU BY
00Z WED, WITH COOLER HIGHS IN THE 70S WEST AND LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY. ELEVATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE FRONT IN A STRONG
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

DAYS 3-7...

NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING EXTENDED.  HARDEST DECISION IS HOW
FAST THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY WILL GET PUSHED BACK NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY.  WILL BANK ON THE ETA AND GFS SOLUTION OF SHOOTING THE
WARM FRONT NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL IN NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.  THE UKMET TAKES THIS FRONT ORIGINALLY MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH THAN OTHER MODELS, BUT SEEMS TO BOUNCE BACK TOO SLOWLY
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  THE ETA80 HAS A NOSE OF 100F IN MEADE
COUNTY FOR WED, BUT PLAN ON LOW 90S FOR NOW...WHICH IS THE MAIN
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST.  THE YO-YO ATMOSPHERE WILL
LIKELY SEND CLOUDS AND FRONT BACK ACROSS CWA TO THE SOUTH ON
THURSDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPS DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
RESULTANT LESS SUN.  THEN, WE SHOULD SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND SET IN
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.  THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF DAY TIME HEATING EACH
DAY, SEVERAL LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES, AND THUS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.  IF FRONT MEANDERS BACK
NORTH AND SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND, POPS MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED THEN
AS WELL.  FOR NOW, WENT DRY OVER THE WEEKEND, THINKING MOST ACTIVITY
WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF CWA.

&&
DDC 60 87 57 78 / 20 30 50 30
GCK 56 86 56 73 / 30 20 30 30
EHA 57 93 55 78 / 20 00 20 30
LBL 57 92 58 81 / 20 00 30 30
HYS 60 84 54 77 / 30 20 40 30
P28 64 87 62 84 / 00 00 50 30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES UNTIL 7PM SUNDAY.
&&

FINCH/TSB

Hazardous weather outlook, May 16, 10:55 AM CDT, 11 hours 59 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1055 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-171000-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-ELLIS-FINNEY-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HAMILTON-
HASKELL-HODGEMAN-KEARNY-KIOWA-LANE-MEADE-MORTON-NESS-PAWNEE-PRATT-
RUSH-SCOTT-SEWARD-STAFFORD-STANTON-STEVENS-TREGO-
1055 AM CDT (955 AM MDT) SUN MAY 16 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WINDS WILL HOWL AT 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON.  HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES MAY EXPERIENCE DIFFICULTY DRIVING
IN THESE STRONG WINDS.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WEST OF A LAKIN TO HUGOTON
LINE AFTER 4 PM CDT, AND WEST OF A DIGHTON TO MEADE LINE AFTER 7 PM
CDT.  THE OVERALL CHANCE AT ANY ONE LOCATION FOR SEVERE STORMS
IS VERY LOW, BUT THERE STILL REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH WITH ONE OR TWO OF THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT, BUT
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM COULD PROMPT A CALL TO GATHER INFORMATION.

TSB

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 16, 10:06 PM CDT, 48 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1006 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1002 PM     HAIL             4 N DIGHTON             38.54N 100.47W
05/16/2004  2.00 INCH        LANE               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

FINCH

Local storm report, May 16, 10:24 PM CDT, 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1024 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1023 PM     HAIL             2 W DIGHTON             38.48N 100.50W
05/16/2004  1.00 INCH        LANE               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

FINCH

Local storm report, May 16, 10:28 PM CDT, 26 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1028 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1027 PM     HAIL             2 S AMY                 38.43N 100.60W
05/16/2004  1.00 INCH        LANE               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

FINCH

Local storm report, May 16, 10:44 PM CDT, 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1044 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     HAIL             DIGHTON                 38.48N 100.47W
05/16/2004  1.00 INCH        LANE               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

FINCH

Local storm report, May 16, 10:45 PM CDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1045 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1044 PM     HAIL             DIGHTON                 38.48N 100.47W
05/16/2004  1.00 INCH        LANE               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

FINCH

Local storm report, May 16, 10:50 PM CDT, 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1050 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 PM     HAIL             6 W LARNED              38.18N 99.21W
05/16/2004  1.00 INCH        PAWNEE             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

FINCH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Dodge City, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 16, 7:10 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DDC	Lane	50 min
May 16, 7:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Scott	75 min
May 16, 7:56 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DDC	Ness	49 min
May 16, 8:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Lane	74 min
May 16, 8:30 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DDC	Scott	45 min
May 16, 9:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Lane, Scott	43 min
May 16, 9:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Ness	64 min
May 16, 9:46 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DDC	Hodgeman, Ness	44 min
May 16, 10:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Lane, Ness	61 min
May 16, 11:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Pawnee, Stafford	61 min
May 17, 5:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Finney, Lane	37 min
May 17, 6:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Ness	42 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kansas, 2004 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.