Severe Thunderstorm Warning 317, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
303 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

HAVE BEEN STEWING THE LAST FEW HOURS OVER POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.  EARLIER GRIDS HAD 30 POPS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BUT I
HAD LOWERED THEM EARLY THIS MORNING AS IT APPEARED THAT THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARLY AM NEBRASKA MCS HAD WASHED OUT.
HOWEVER, THE S/WV MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES NOW APPEARS TO
BE A TAD STRONGER THAN I ORIGINALLY SUSPECTED AS CONVECTION IN THE
MOUNTAINS WAS BECOMING A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED AS OF THIS WRITING.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY MOVED OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND IS
ACTUALLY LOOKING PRETTY GOOD.  ATMOSPHERE OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE
CWA IS PRIMED WITH CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG.  QUESTION THEN IS
CAN THE COLORADO CONVECTION PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO REACH THIS JUICY
AIR AND ONCE INSOLATION IS LOST THIS EVENING, WILL THERE BE ENOUGH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION.  ALAS, I WILL STAY
WITH THE LOWER POPS WITH SOME RESERVATION, BUT ADVISE THE EVENING
SHIFT OF THE BUST POTENTIAL.

NEXT PROBLEM WILL BE IF DAYTIME HEATING, HIGH THETAE AIR AND ANY
REMNANT SFC BOUNDARY TO OVERCOME INCREASING MID LEVEL TEMPS ON
SATURDAY.  WILL CARRY AT LEAST SMALL POPS IN THE NW/N CWA.  CANT
GO WITH GUILDANCE TEMPS YET AS WET GROUND AND FLOURISHING PLANT LIFE
SHOULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES BELOW WHAT NORMALLY COULD BE
REALIZED.

DAYS 3-7...

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT ON BUILDING A
RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE PERIOD.  THE GFS TRIES TO
BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE RIDGE AND THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY, AND DRAGGING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE ECMWF AGREES SOMEWHAT,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THESE SORT OF FEATURES IS LOW AND IT DOESNT SEEM
TO HAVE MUCH OF AN AFFECT ON 850MB TEMPS HERE ANYWAY.  THE VERY WARM
850MB TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WOULD SEEM TO INDICATE HIGHS GETTING
UP ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK.  HOWEVER, WITH RECENT RAINS THE MOISTURE
IN THE SOIL AND VEGETATION WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR FULL
HEATING POTENTIAL RIGHT AWAY.  CONTINUED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S MONDAY WARMING TO NEAR 100 LATER IN THE WEEK, WITH SOME
MINOR BUMPS UP FOR INTERSITE CONSISTENCY.  PRECIP WISE, WITH 700MB
TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD WE COULD BE WELL
CAPED.  A FEW DISTURBANCES COULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE RIDGE AND
HELP BREAK THE CAP AND DEVELOP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH
IMPOSSIBLE TO TELL EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE.  THINK THAT THE CHANCES
WOULD BE UNDER 10 PERCENT ANYWAY, AND THUS WILL LEAVE THINGS DRY FOR
NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

DDC 65 95 68 96 / 20 10 10 00
GCK 65 95 65 97 / 20 20 20 00
EHA 66 94 65 96 / 20 10 10 00
LBL 67 96 67 96 / 20 10 10 00
HYS 65 93 66 96 / 20 20 20 00
P28 68 94 69 96 / 20 10 10 00
&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
&&

07/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
456 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-311000-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-ELLIS-FINNEY-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HAMILTON-
HASKELL-HODGEMAN-KEARNY-KIOWA-LANE-MEADE-MORTON-NESS-PAWNEE-PRATT-
RUSH-SCOTT-SEWARD-STAFFORD-STANTON-STEVENS-TREGO-
456 AM CDT (356 AM MDT) FRI JUL 30 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE FOUND IN AREAS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  LOCATIONS FROM DODGE CITY EAST TO SAINT
JOHN, PRATT, AND MEDICINE LODGE WILL SEE THE AREAS OF FOG REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES THROUGH 8 AM CDT.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BEHIND
FROM PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS.  GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE WIND SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE, SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

UMSCHEID