Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
259 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

MAIN FORECAST DECISION IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH 48 HOURS,
AND SEVERE POSSIBILITIES IN NEAR TERM.

WITH THE CU FIELD BUBBLING IN FAR SW KANSAS AND OK/TX PANHANDLE,
THINK THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY POP AS UPPER COLD
POOL OF -20 IN HOVERS ALOFT.  A SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN UTAH THIS
MORNING WILL ROTATE TO NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY 00Z, ADDING
LIFT TO THE FORMULA.  THINK THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL TO NICKEL
SIZE, AS SOME STORMS MAY BE ELEVATED AT FIRST AND PUNCH THROUGH THE
COLD AIR RAPIDLY.  JUST TALKED WITH SPC VIA CONFERENCE CALL AND A SVR
WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR SW 1/2 CWA.  STAFF WILL BE MONITORING
STORM DEVELOPMENT AND ISSUE SVR PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.  HEADLINES IN
GRIDS TIL 02Z.

AFTER THE FIRST WAVE MOVES THROUGH, THINK THERE WILL BE INTENSITY
AND MORE SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES, BUT NOT MUCH
CHANCE FOR SEVERE.  WILL TO WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE NW AND CHC POPS
ELSEWHERE.

THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN LOWER LAYERS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AND THUS HAVE INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHEAST
MOST COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTN, CHANGING TO 80 POPS BY THURSDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT.  REST OF CWA WILL BE IN HIGH CHC OR LIKELY POPS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO NEAR CURRENT DEW POINTS TONIGHT, RISE TO
A 61N-NW TO 68SE GRADIENT ON THURSDAY.  THEN SATURATION SETS IN AND
FOR MIN-MAX DIURNAL RANGE ONLY 3 TO 6 DEGREES.  WE SHOULD BE SOCKED
IN WITH LOW SC CLOUDS, BLUSTERY NE WINDS GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH, AND
PRECIP.

DAYS 3-7...

GOING EXTENDED LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ARE
NEEDED. DECIDED TO ADD A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE AREAS ABOVE 3600FT
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW BELOW FREEZING TEMPS
DOWN TO AROUND 800MB. UKMET/ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER LOW OPENING UP AND
RAPIDLY LIFTING BE BY 12Z SAT PER GOING FCST. THE EC/UK ALSO SHOW
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING IN THE SW US BY DAYS 5-6. WE THINK THE
LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO GET PRECIP INTO
KANSAS. WENT WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR HIGHS/LOWS FOR
DAYS 5-7 AS CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
FAIRLY HIGH SFC PRESSURES DESPITE THE HIGH 500MB HEIGHTS--HENCE NEAR
CLIMO THICKNESS VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

DDC 47 62 46 49 / 40 70 70 70
GCK 45 61 43 47 / 40 70 70 60
EHA 41 66 41 50 / 50 50 50 70
LBL 46 65 44 50 / 50 50 50 70
HYS 49 61 44 49 / 70 80 80 60
P28 53 68 53 58 / 40 70 70 70
&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
&&

12/24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1142 AM CDT WED APR 21 2004

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-221000-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-ELLIS-FINNEY-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HAMILTON-
HASKELL-HODGEMAN-KEARNY-KIOWA-LANE-MEADE-MORTON-NESS-PAWNEE-PRATT-
RUSH-SCOTT-SEWARD-STAFFORD-STANTON-STEVENS-TREGO-
1149 AM CDT (1042 AM MDT) WED APR 21 2004

CORRECTED SPELLING LAST SECTION

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 4 PM CDT IN THE LIBERAL AND MEADE
AREAS, THEN DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST INTO THE SUBLETTE, ASHLAND AND
COLDWATER AREAS BY 7 PM.  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ANY
THUNDERSTORM WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF NICKELS. RAINFALL WILL BE SPOTTY AND GENERALLY LESS THAN
A HALF INCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A GARDEN CITY TO ASHLAND LINE, AND
LAST INTO FRIDAY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH NICKEL SIZED
HAIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN THE MEDICINE LODGE, COLDWATER AND
PRATT AREAS. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS, WITH UP TO
AN INCH AND A QUARTER IN A FEW SPOTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
SEWARD, HASKELL, MEADE, CLARK AND COMANCHE COUNTIES.

TSB