Severe Thunderstorm Warning 220, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
157 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL WAS PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. DECENT LLVL CONV PRESENT ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND AS COOLING BEGINS ALOFT LAPSE RATES WILL BE INCREASING.
AS A RESULT WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS BEHIND OUR FRONT WHICH CURRENT
GRIDS HAVE. ALSO WILL KEEP TREND OF PCPN ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN AND SUB DEVELOPS. LATEST MODELS
STILL HINTING AT MCS DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FRI AND SAT BUT
AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO BETTER DEFINE TRACK OR
TIMING IN GRIDS. WILL THEREFORE LEAVE POP/WX GRIDS AS IS.

AS FOR TEMPS CLOUD COVER WILL KEY FOR FRIDAY AND SAT. AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIKE SOME BREAKS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH SO
BASED ON THIS AND MY COLD BIAS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BASE
HIGH TEMPS ON THE ETA MIX DOWN TEMPS.

DAYS 3-7...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC, AND HOW THIS LOW EVOLVES WILL BE A LARGE FACTOR IN HOW
THINGS GO IN THE EXTENDED.  THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL SEEMED TO
INITIALIZE FAIRLY WELL, AND START OUT IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE
GENERAL PATTERN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD
SEE FAIRLY LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE LARGE UPPER
LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND RIDGING BUILDING
INTO THE ROCKIES.  AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH SHOULD
HELP UPSLOPE SFC FLOW TO CONTINUE.  THE GFS HAS THE SFC BOUNDARY
SOMEWHERE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF US BY MONDAY, WITH PRECIP IN EASTERN
CO AND TO OUR SOUTH, BUT LITTLE FOR OUR CWA.  HOWEVER, THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE LITTLE TO NO SKILL WITH THESE KIND OF
FEATURES, SO WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS WE HAVE GOING FOR MON, BUT
ADJUSTED TO PUT THEM MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND ADDED A
GRADIENT WITH THE HIGHEST POP VALUES IN THE WEST WHERE WE COULD GET
STUFF COMING OFF HIGH TERRAIN.  BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES JUST A BIT AND STARTS TO MOVE EASTWARD.  HOWEVER, THE GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE THE REMNANTS OF THE CUTOFF LOW DIGGING FAIRLY
DEEPLY INTO THE WESTERN CONUS, AND THIS COULD HELP SEND WEAK
SHORTWAVES UP TO DISTURB THE RIDGE OVER US.  IN ADDITION,
SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE, AND THERE WILL BE DECENT
MOISTURE IN THE LEE SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES TO GET SOMETHING TO FIRE
THERE AND HEAD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.  ADJUSTED THE LOW POPS FOR
TUES FOR A WEST TO EAST GRADIENT LATE IN THE DAY AND ADDED SIMILAR
TO WED.  TEMPERATURE-WISE, THE GOING FORECAST LOOKED GOOD AND ONLY
MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR CONSISTENCY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

DDC 53 74 57 75 / 60 20 50 30
GCK 53 72 56 73 / 40 30 50 30
EHA 56 73 58 72 / 50 40 60 30
LBL 54 75 57 74 / 60 30 60 30
HYS 54 74 56 74 / 40 20 40 30
P28 57 77 59 76 / 60 30 50 30
&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
&&

18/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
457 AM CDT THU JUN 24 2004

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-251000-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-ELLIS-FINNEY-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HAMILTON-
HASKELL-HODGEMAN-KEARNY-KIOWA-LANE-MEADE-MORTON-NESS-PAWNEE-PRATT-
RUSH-SCOTT-SEWARD-STAFFORD-STANTON-STEVENS-TREGO-
457 AM CDT (357 AM MDT) THU JUN 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHWEST
KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.  A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
STORMS EXPECTED TO FIRST DEVELOP FROM NEAR SCOTT CITY TO THE WAKEENEY
AND HAYS AREAS.  THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY BY EARLY THIS EVENING IMPACTING MANY POINTS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM LIBERAL TO GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY TO LARNED
AND EVENTUALLY POINTS SOUTHEAST OF THIS LINE AS THE EVENING WEARS ON.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING, THEN DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BECOME AN
INCREASING THREAT LATER IN THE EVENING AS AN ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ANOTHER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO LATE FRIDAY.  THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE
SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER 3 PM CDT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER, THEN AFTER 6 PM CDT SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER.

UMSCHEID