Severe Thunderstorm Warning 209, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
323 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY ARE CHANCES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THEN A SEVERE MCS TONIGHT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

CURRENT MCS IS MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH ONLY A FEW WARNINGS AND THIS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 15Z. THEN WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. VERY WARM 700MB TEMPS WILL ALSO ADVECT INTO SOUTHWEST
CORNER AND MAY PUT A LID ON CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE CAP SHOULD
BREAK ELSEWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON ON THE NOSE OF WARM ADVECTION AND
VICINITY OF WARM FRONT FROM AROUND GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY AND
PRATT, THEN BECOME A SEVERE MCS BY EARLY EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF OUR CWA. WILL HAVE A
20 POP FOR SOUTHWEST CORNER JUST IN CASE THE SOMETHING BREAKS THE
CAP, THEN HAVE THE BEST CHANCES IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL OF A TORNADO
OR TWO ALONG THE WARM FRONT LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING BEFORE
THE MCS BECOMES DOMINANT. (MCS EQUALS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX).

FOR MONDAY LOOK FOR THE COLD FRONT TO GO THROUGH DODGE BY 12Z THEN
MEDICINE LODGE LATER IN THE MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING
THUNDERSTORMS. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
CORNER. WILL THEN KEEP A CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER
ON MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

DAYS 3-7...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

DDC 81 63 79 59 / 50 60 00 00
GCK 81 62 78 56 / 50 50 00 00
EHA 90 61 80 59 / 20 20 30 30
LBL 90 63 80 59 / 30 30 30 30
HYS 77 62 78 58 / 60 99 00 00
P28 82 66 81 64 / 60 50 40 00
&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
&&

06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
205 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2004

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-201100-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-ELLIS-FINNEY-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HAMILTON-
HASKELL-HODGEMAN-KEARNY-KIOWA-LANE-MEADE-MORTON-NESS-PAWNEE-PRATT-
RUSH-SCOTT-SEWARD-STAFFORD-STANTON-STEVENS-TREGO-
205 PM CDT (105 PM MDT) SAT JUN 19 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TO MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS AFTER SUNSET. UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PERSIST, AND
THE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MOVE INTO KANSAS THIS EVENING ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE, BUT MAY PRODUCE UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH OF RAINFALL OVERNIGHT IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. A
FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE. HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS, ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LOCAL
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

18

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
148 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 AM     HAIL             5 W SCOTT CITY          38.48N 101.00W
06/20/2004  0.75 INCH        SCOTT              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

06