Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
310 AM MDT THU JUL 29 2004

.SHORT TERM...SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE CYS FORECAST
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LOW LEVEL RETURN
FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY EAST OF MOUNTAINS ON THE WESTERN BACKSIDE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WINDS WILL ADVECT IN SURFACE BASED
MOISTURE. THE SURFACE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL IMPART SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR TO
THE AIRMASS...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE BASED
FRONTOGENESIS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD BEFORE
GETTING HUNG UP ON THE MOUNTAINS. WILL GO WITH SCATTERED POPS TODAY
OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE 70S TO LOWER 80S IN MOST AREAS. CONVECTION
WILL LINGER THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES FRI BEHIND STRONGER SHORWAVE
TROUGH THAT EXITS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES FRI MORNING.
MODELS SHOW ONLY A FEW VERY MINOR DISTURBANCES STILL MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW
LATE DAY TSTMS...WILL GO WITH DRY FORECAST FRI.  STRONG UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER FORECAST AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY AS UPPER HIGH OVER
NORTHERN NM STRENGTHENS AND HEIGHTS RISE OVER WY.  RIDGE WILL HOLD
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A DRY AND QUITE WARM FORECAST IN THE OFFING
ALREADY STARTING ON SATURDAY.  COULD BE ISOLATED LATE DAY TSTMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.  NOT MUCH EXPECTED AT LOWER ELEVATIONS EXCEPT FOR
SUNDAY WHEN GFS SHOWS A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND UPPER HIGH...AND
THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A LOW POP OVER WY PORTION OF FORECAST AREA.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1002 AM MDT THU JUL 29 2004

NEZ001>003-019>021-054-055-WYZ059>070-301130-
BANNER-BOX BUTTE-CHEYENNE-CHEYENNE FOOTHILLS-CONVERSE-DAWES-GOSHEN-
KIMBALL-LARAMIE RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-MORRILL-NIOBRARA-NORTH CARBON-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-PINE BLUFFS-PLATTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-SIOUX-
SNOWY RANGE-SOUTHWEST CARBON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALLIANCE...CHADRON...CHEYENNE...DOUGLAS...
KIMBALL...LARAMIE...LUSK...RAWLINS...SCOTTSBLUFF...SIDNEY...
TORRINGTON AND WHEATLAND
1002 AM MDT THU JUL 29 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.  MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER AIR WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS MAY
PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.  THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE OVER THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ONLY A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS A
WARMER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP.  LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

KMD