Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
215 PM MDT MON JULY 5 2004

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE CWA TO THE
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY 20Z.  THE MORE STABLE AIR BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY HAS KEPT ALL OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER.  UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT.  WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT WILL END AND CLOUDS
DECREASE AS THE FEATURE MOVES AWAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.  UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND A COOL AIRMASS...FOG IS A
GOOD POSSIBILITY IN THE EAST PART OF THE CWA AS MANY TEMPERATURES
DIP INTO THE 40S.  HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE OVER THE CWA FOR TUESDAY AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  THE RESULT
SHOULD BE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AS WELL AS POPS NEAR ZERO.

.LONG TERM...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TUE NIGHT WILL BACK TO
WESTERLY WED AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN CANADA. UPPER FLOW WILL BACK FURTHER TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WED NIGHT WITH UPPER AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING
ON THU. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM THU THROUGH MON. CLOSER
TO EARTH...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT OR WED.
TEMPERATURES WED WILL REACH THE 80S TO LOWER 90S OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPS THU WILL REACH MAINLY THE 80S. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THU AFTERNOON WITH POSTFRONTAL UPSLOPE
FLOW GENERATING A CHANCE OF RAIN. THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE VERY LITTLE
COOLING AND TEMPS FRI WILL WARM INTO THE 80S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN. MUCH THE SAME FOR SATURDAY ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A
DRY SURFACE AIRMASS UNDER INCREASING RIDGINESS ALOFT SHOULD RESULT
IN DRY WEATHER SUN AND MON WITH TEMPS TYPICAL OF JULY.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1009 AM MDT MON JUL 5 2004

NEZ001>003-019>021-054-055-WYZ059>070-061111-
BANNER-BOX BUTTE-CHEYENNE-CHEYENNE FOOTHILLS-CONVERSE-DAWES-GOSHEN-
KIMBALL-LARAMIE RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-MORRILL-NIOBRARA-NORTH CARBON-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-PINE BLUFFS-PLATTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-SIOUX-
SNOWY RANGE-SOUTHWEST CARBON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALLIANCE...CHADRON...CHEYENNE...DOUGLAS...
KIMBALL...LARAMIE...LUSK...RAWLINS...SCOTTSBLUFF...SIDNEY...
TORRINGTON AND WHEATLAND
1009 AM MDT MON JUL 5 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND

EVENING.  MANY OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF AND LOCAL WIND GUSTS
TO 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.  THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE LOCATED IN
THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.  IT IS IN THAT AREA WHERE THE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE
GREATEST AS WELL AS THE CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO A COLD FRONT NOW
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN KIMBALL...CHEYENNE AND MORRILL COUNTIES MAY
ALSO PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE LIGHTNING AND UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH
DIAMETER HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED FOR KIMBALL...CHEYENNE AND
MORRILL COUNTIES FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

WEILAND