Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
154 PM MDT TUE JUN 29 2004

.SHORT TERM...THUNDERSTORMS FIRED UP OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THEY HAVE HAD LITTLE SUCCESS MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS.
THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT.
MOST ACTION ON THE PLAINS SHOULD BE INHIBITED BY A FAIRLY SHARP
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...WHICH STRETCHES FROM ABOUT
CASPER TO CHEYENNE. HOWEVER ANYTHING THAT DOES POP UP OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE HAS A CHANCE OF GOING SEVERE WITH A MORE UNSTABLE
AIR MASS THERE. THE RIDGE MOVES LITTLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
TOMORROW THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS STILL FAVORED FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY. SO CONVECTION SHOULD REGENERATE BEFORE NOON ALONG AND WEST
OF THE SNOWY RANGE AND THEN SPREAD SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE WITH A UPPER LOW RETROGRADING
TO ABOUT 170W OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
SETS UP A WEAK BUT QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER TROF ALONG THE US WEST
COAST AND A POSSIBLE START TO THE MONSOON BY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE
BELIEVE THE MRF IS TOO DRY IN EXTENDED PERIODS STARTING ON DAY 6 AND
7. WILL NEED TO WATCH MORE CLOSELY.  LIKE ETA SOLUTION FOR THURSDAY
7/2 FOR ONLY ISOLD PM TSTMS ACROSS CWA AND A DRYING TREND INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. GFS STILL HAS CONVECTIVE BIAS. BOTH MODELS ARE
DRYER HOWEVER FRI...SAT AND 4TH JULY ACROSS CWA AND THIS LOOKS
GOOD.  STILL...WILL LEAVE WIDELY SCT PM TSTMS MAINLY EAST OF SE WY
MNTNS AND INTO NE PNHDL ESPECIALLY FOR THE 4TH. WEEKEND TEMPS LOOK
GREAT. HIGHS FOR THE 4TH SHOULD BE IN THE 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S. WILL CALL FOR AN SCTD PM TSTMS MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROF
INTENSIFIES OVER PAC NW AND SURFACE HI BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT
OF CEN CANADA. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE A RETURN SURFACE UPSLOPE
SOUTHEAST FLOW SETTING UP BY MONDAY AND BECOMING MORE ENFORCED BY
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER MON AND TUE
AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES INLAND.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

POMEROY/PARKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1039 AM MDT TUE JUN 29 2004

NEZ001>003-019>021-054-055-WYZ059>070-301200-
BANNER-BOX BUTTE-CHEYENNE-CHEYENNE FOOTHILLS-CONVERSE-DAWES-GOSHEN-
KIMBALL-LARAMIE RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-MORRILL-NIOBRARA-NORTH CARBON-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-PINE BLUFFS-PLATTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-SIOUX-
SNOWY RANGE-SOUTHWEST CARBON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALLIANCE...CHADRON...CHEYENNE...DOUGLAS...
KIMBALL...LARAMIE...LUSK...RAWLINS...SCOTTSBLUFF...SIDNEY...
TORRINGTON AND WHEATLAND
1039 AM MDT TUE JUN 29 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE LARAMIE
AND SNOWY RANGES IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING. STORMS MAY SPREAD INTO THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF
THE STORMS IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL AROUND AN INCH IN DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND WILL BE
MAINLY IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
HARRISON TO BRIDGEPORT IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.