Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
115 PM MDT SUN JUN 20 2004

.SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN IN SHORT TERM IS CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. FORECAST AREA IN BRIEF LULL
BETWEEN WAVES...ONE DEPARTING THE PANHANDLE AND NEXT WORKING ITS WAY
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL WY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN AREA NOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS GIVEN APPROACH OF NEXT WAVE.  THINK
INITIAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN COLORADO DURING REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR.  THINK
SPC DAY ONE ON RIGHT TRACK.

THE SECOND WAVE SHOULD BE MOVING OUT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...AND WINDS SWITCH TO THE NORTH AS SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS
IN.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS FROM THE MODELS SHOWING LESS MEAN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS OR PRECIP.  WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON MONDAY GIVEN COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...MON NGT AND BEYOND...NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THRU NEXT
WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER FTRS BRUSHING BY NE OF AREA.
SERIES OF WEAK FROPAS ALSO...ONE ARND SNRS WED...WITH STGR ONE WED
NGT. MODELS ARENT QUITE AS COOL AS THEY WERE YDA BEHIND THESE
SYSTEMS.  AFT SOME LINGERING SHWRS EARLY MON EVNG FAR SE SXNS...IT
APPEARS THAT TUE AND WED WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...GFS LOOKS TOO MOIST IN
LOWER LAYERS ON WED AFTN/EVNG.  HAVE LEFT IN CHCS OF LATE DAY TSTMS
FOR THU THRU SUN...WITH THE EMPHASIS MORE IN AND NEAR THE SE WY
MTNS.  TEMPS START TO RECOVER LATE NEXT WEEKEND TO MORE NORMAL
LEVELS.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1041 AM MDT SUN JUN 20 2004

NEZ001>003-019>021-054-055-WYZ059>070-211130-
BANNER-BOX BUTTE-CHEYENNE-CHEYENNE FOOTHILLS-CONVERSE-DAWES-GOSHEN-
KIMBALL-LARAMIE RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-MORRILL-NIOBRARA-NORTH CARBON-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-PINE BLUFFS-PLATTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-SIOUX-
SNOWY RANGE-SOUTHWEST CARBON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALLIANCE...CHADRON...CHEYENNE...DOUGLAS...
KIMBALL...LARAMIE...LUSK...RAWLINS...SCOTTSBLUFF...SIDNEY...
TORRINGTON AND WHEATLAND
1041 AM MDT SUN JUN 20 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARD IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY EXCEPT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
FROM FROM THE LARAMIE RANGE EASTWARD.  SPOTTERS IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING
MAY NEED TO BE ACTIVATED BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE SPOTTERS IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL MORE LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.

BANN