Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
145 PM MDT WED JUL 14 2004

.SHORT TERM...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER CO TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.  A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE WY PORTION OF THE CWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT AND
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA AROUND THE UPPER HIGH.  LIS WILL BE
AROUND -4 THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH CAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG.  HOWEVER...500 MB WINDS ARE LESS THAN
30 KTS...SO STORMS THAT DO FORM THIS EVENING WILL NOT HAVE ANY
TILT...AND WILL BE MAINLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS.  SOME STORMS EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE MAY PULSE UP AND PRODUCE BRIEF HAIL BEFORE
DOWNDRAFTS CUT OFF UPDRAFTS.  WILL GO WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING.  TOMORROW
AFTERNOON LOOKS SIMILAR IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...WITH THE STORMS
BECOMING A BIT STRONGER...DUE TO THE DYNAMICS PRODUCED BY THE SHORT
WAVE.  HOWEVER...BEST INSTABILITY AND CAPES MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY
00Z FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN INTENSITY OF STORMS AFTER
THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...THU NGT AND BYND...AVBL MODELS TDA STILL POINT TO A FTR
WORKING ITS WAY ARND 4 CRNRS UPR HIGH INTO THE REGION THU AFTN/NGT.
FOR FRI...MAY BE LIKE TDA...KINDA BTWN SYSTEMS WITH FEWER STORMS
ARND.  UPR PTRN REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME THRU NEXT WEEK...06Z GFS
SUGGESTED THAT THE FTR MOVG INTO THE PAC NW AND THEN ACRS THE CANDN
BORDER MAY NOT BE AS STG AS 00Z LR GFS SHOWED...WHICH WOULD MEAN
MORE OF THE USUAL LATE DAY TSTMS WITH A BIT ABOVE NRML TEMPS.  AS IS
COMMON IN THESE RATHER STAGNANT PTRNS...HARD TO FCST MONSOONAL
SURGES OF MSTR PAST ABOUT 3-4 DAYS.  STILL LOOKS PERHAPS A BIT DRIER
SAT AND SUN...THEN A BIT BETTER CHC MON/TUE WITH BRUSH BY OF SYSTEM
TO THE N.  NO NEW 12Z GFS SO FAR HERE...SO LTL OVERALL CHNGS MADE IN
FCST PAST SAT.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
947 AM MDT WED JUL 14 2004

NEZ001>003-019>021-054-055-WYZ059>070-151130-
BANNER-BOX BUTTE-CHEYENNE-CHEYENNE FOOTHILLS-CONVERSE-DAWES-GOSHEN-
KIMBALL-LARAMIE RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-MORRILL-NIOBRARA-NORTH CARBON-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-PINE BLUFFS-PLATTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-SIOUX-
SNOWY RANGE-SOUTHWEST CARBON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALLIANCE...CHADRON...CHEYENNE...DOUGLAS...
KIMBALL...LARAMIE...LUSK...RAWLINS...SCOTTSBLUFF...SIDNEY...
TORRINGTON AND WHEATLAND
947 AM MDT WED JUL 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THIS
EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.  HEAVY RAIN CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS FROM GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM CASPER TO
CHEYENNE.

WIDELY SCATTERED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN IN MOST
AREAS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA.

KMD