Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1045 AM EDT THU JUN 17 2004

.UPDATE...

UPDATE TO TAKE OUT AM WORDING FOR DENSE FOG ETC.

DEWPOINTS AND PW VALUES QUITE HIGH...BUT CELL MOVEMENT NOT BAD...
EAST AT 25 TO 30 MPH...THUS NO NEED FOR A FLOOD WATCH AT THE
CURRENT TIME.

STILL LOW CLDS OVER THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY...MORE CLDS MOVING INTO
C PA...WHILE FAR W PA LOOKS LIKE WILL CLEAR OUT FOR A WHILE.
THIS WILL ALLOW BANDS OF CU OVER OH TO BUILD UP...WHILE BEST
DYNAMICS ARE FURTHER EAST.

THUS MOST AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND
ISOLATED PULSE STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT THU JUN 17 2004

EXPECT MVFR AND LOCALLY IFR VISIBILITIES AND SOME CIGS DUE TO
WIDESPREAD FOG. IFR FROM LOCALLY DENSE FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN
SECTIONS THAT RECEIVED SIG PCPN ON WED. BY MID MORNING EXPECT VIS TO
IMPROVE BUT REMAIN MVFR CAT ENTIRE CWA DUE TO HAZE THROUGHOUT DAY.
SCT IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTN HOURS. THUR NIGHT INTO FRI EXPECT MORE OF
THE SAME WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES MAINLY DUE TO FOG.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE FOLLOWING WAS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT THU JUN 17 2004

SUPER HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUING
TO FEED AROUND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE. ETA FCSTS
PWATS ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL ALL DAY...MEANING
VALUES OF AROUND 2 HANGING IN ALL DAY. THIS SHUD PROVIDE THE FUEL
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...TO MID 70S
IN SOME PLACES...IT WILL FEEL LIKE FLORIDA.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS SVRL WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW RIPPLING ALONG THE
NRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THE MOST POTENT SEEMS TO BE THE REMNANTS OF
THE OLD TROPICAL UPPER LOW THAT WENT ASHORE IN THE GULF A FEW DAYS
AGO. MODELS TAKE THIS QUICKLY OUT OF THE MIDWEST AS A WEAKENING
FEATURE. AS THE LEFT EXIT OF A JET STREAK ASSOC WITH THE WAVE
APPROACHES THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY...UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES
AND SHUD BE PLENTY TO TAP THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...ALLOWING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM ONCE AGAIN. WINDS ALOFT ARE A
TAD STRONGER THAN WED SO SLOW MOVING STORMS SHUD NOT BE AS MUCH OF A
PROBLEM...HOWEVER THE DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AND THREAT FOR DOWNPOURS. AREAS THAT GOT HIT HARD THE LAST FEW DAYS
WILL HAVE TO BE ESPECIALLY MONITORED FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL...BUT AT
THIS HOUR I SEE NO ONE AREA THAT WOULD BE FAVORED FOR HEAVY RAIN SO
NO AREA REALLY TO FAVOR FOR A FLOOD WATCH.

MODELS COMING INTO SOME SORT OF ACCORD NOW WITH DRYING THINGS OUT
STEADILY STARTING TOMORROW. DROPPED POPS OFF QUITE A BIT FRIDAY
DESPITE LITTLE REAL CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL AIRMASS EXPECTED. HOWEVER
UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE SEEN IN BOT ETA AND GFS SUGGESTS SMALLER CHC
OF CONVECTION THAN PREV DAYS...SO I BOUGHT OFF ON BEING A LITTLE
MORE OPTIMISTIC. WE SHUD CONTINUE TO SEE DRIER AIR FILTER DOWN SAT
AS UPPER HGHTS DROP WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A NICE DRY HIGH BEING ALLOWED TO BUILD IN TO CLOSE OUT
THE WEEKEND.
&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE FOLLOWING WAS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT THU JUN 17 2004

BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MREF SUGGESTS UPPER HGHTS TO SHIFT TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WHICH SHUD AT LEAST LEAD TO A CUT IN THE
HUMIDITY. COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME RATHER COOL NIGHTS STARTING LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AS FCST THICKNESSES ALSO FCST TO BECOME ANOMALOUSLY
LOW FOR A TIME. DIDNT TWEAK THESE NUMBERS DOWN TOO MUCH AT THIS
HOUR...WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE NEW ENSEMBLE MOS BEFORE MAKING ANY REAL
ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD. DAYSHIFT WILL BE LOOKING AT THESE.

BY TUE/WED WE SEE THICKNESS AND HGHTS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. MREF
SUGGESTS WE STAY CLOSE TO THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES SO WE SEE A
RETURN TO THE LOW CHC POPS IN THE FCST.
&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
&&

UPDATED BY...MARTIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
844 AM EDT THU JUN 17 2004

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-181236-
ADAMS PA-BEDFORD PA-BLAIR PA-CAMBRIA PA-CAMERON PA-CLEARFIELD PA-
COLUMBIA PA-CUMBERLAND PA-DAUPHIN PA-ELK PA-FRANKLIN PA-FULTON PA-
HUNTINGDON PA-JUNIATA PA-LANCASTER PA-LEBANON PA-MCKEAN PA-
MIFFLIN PA-MONTOUR PA-NORTHERN CENTRE PA-NORTHERN CLINTON PA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-PERRY PA-POTTER PA-
SCHUYLKILL PA-SNYDER PA-SOMERSET PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-
SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-SULLIVAN PA-TIOGA PA-
UNION PA-WARREN PA-YORK PA-
844 AM EDT THU JUN 17 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL. IN ADDITION...SOME STORMS WILL CONTAIN TORRENTIAL
RAIN.

STORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN COULD POP UP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MARTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1138 AM EDT THU JUN 17 2004

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-180138-
ADAMS PA-BEDFORD PA-BLAIR PA-CAMBRIA PA-CAMERON PA-CLEARFIELD PA-
COLUMBIA PA-CUMBERLAND PA-DAUPHIN PA-ELK PA-FRANKLIN PA-FULTON PA-
HUNTINGDON PA-JUNIATA PA-LANCASTER PA-LEBANON PA-MCKEAN PA-
MIFFLIN PA-MONTOUR PA-NORTHERN CENTRE PA-NORTHERN CLINTON PA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-PERRY PA-POTTER PA-
SCHUYLKILL PA-SNYDER PA-SOMERSET PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-
SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-SULLIVAN PA-TIOGA PA-
UNION PA-WARREN PA-YORK PA-
1138 AM EDT THU JUN 17 2004

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS...BUT HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...SOME STORMS WILL
CONTAIN TORRENTIAL RAIN.

SKYWARN ACTIVIATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/CTP

MARTIN