Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1147 PM EDT THU MAY 6 2004

.UPDATE...
WL FIRE AN UPD SHORTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SVR BOX. WORDING ONLY THING
THAT WL CHANGE.

DANGELO

LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT CAPE CONFINED TO OHIO
THIS EVENING...WHILE CENTRAL PA REMAINS QUITE STABLE (SFC DWPTS
HOLDING IN THE 40S). ELEVATED CONVECTION FIRING ALONG AXIS OF LL JET
FROM LK ERIE THROUGH UPSTATE NY. THIS BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
STILL EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...APPEARS ONLY REAL THREAT OF SVR WX WILL BE OVER
NW PA...WHERE LOW LVLS HAVE BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. KCLE RADAR
SHOWING IMPRESSIVE SUPERCELL OVR S ONTARIO DIVING SE TOWARD NW PA.
COULD THREATEN WARREN CO IN A COUPLE OF HOURS.

CURRENT GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE...SO WILL ISSUE NO UPDATE TO ZFP THIS
EVENING.

FITZGERALD
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

PATTERN SETTING UP TO MAKE US VULNERABLE TO BOUTS OF CONVECTION
RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. FIRST CHC COMES TONIGHT AS MCS MOVING THRU
MICH STARTS TO HEAD SE INTO THE REGION. THIS IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT THE MODELS DRAG THRU THE STATE TONIGHT. INSTABILITY
IS KEPT FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE EVEN AFTER WE LOSE HEATING...WITH
T-TOTALS TOPPING 50 AND LIS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO DESPITE THE LATE
HOUR. THE FRONT IS MADE TO HANG UP JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...BEFORE
SLOWLY CREEPING BACK NORTHWARD WITH THE PROMISE OF OFF AND ON
RW/TRW POTENTIAL THRU SUNDAY AT LEAST.

JL

AT THIS TIME HAVE KEPT MAINLY VFR IN THE TAFS BUT HAVE TO CONTEND
WITH PATCHY MVFR/IFR DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SHOWERS DEVELOP AND MOVE
OVERNIGHT. PUT THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY LOWER VIS TWD
SUNRISE...AGAIN WITH THE IDEA IN MIND THAT SOME RAIN WILL FALL AT
SOME TIME OVERNIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT HUMIDITY TO START POOLING OVER
THE REGION AFTER FRIDAY AS WEAK BOUNDARY STARTS TO FLOUNDER TRYING
TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH.

JL

ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTG TO INDICATE EXTENDED PERIOD OF FLAT UPPER
RIDGING THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL H5 HEIGHTS. SFC FRONT SETTLES ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT.
NORTH OF THE FRONT...EXPECT QUITE CLOUDY AND DREARY CONDS WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AND QUITE COOL CONDS. TO THE SOUTH...SOMEWHAT WARMER
BUT STILL CLOUDY AND SHOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THUNDER. WITH
LITTLE UPPER FORCING TO PUSH THE FRONT ALONG...NEARLY STATIONARY SFC
BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER NEARBY FOR A FEW DAYS...MAKING IT IMPOSSIBLE
TO TIME POPS ASSOC WITH INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST ZONAL
FLOW. THEREFORE WL CONT TO CARRY DIURNAL MAXIMUM CHANCE POPS
DECREASING TO ISOLATED MENTIONS AT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW ANOMALOUS H5 HEIGHTS RETURNING FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH AMPLIFIES OFF EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP THINGS OFF FOR DRY BUT INCREASINGLY WARM
AFTERNOONS WED-FRI.

DEVOIR
&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...SVR WATCH THRU 08Z (4 AM EDT) FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
620 AM EDT THU MAY 6 2004

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-061219-
ADAMS PA-BEDFORD PA-BLAIR PA-CAMBRIA PA-CAMERON PA-CLEARFIELD PA-
COLUMBIA PA-CUMBERLAND PA-DAUPHIN PA-ELK PA-FRANKLIN PA-FULTON PA-
HUNTINGDON PA-JUNIATA PA-LANCASTER PA-LEBANON PA-MCKEAN PA-
MIFFLIN PA-MONTOUR PA-NORTHERN CENTRE PA-NORTHERN CLINTON PA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-PERRY PA-POTTER PA-
SCHUYLKILL PA-SNYDER PA-SOMERSET PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-
SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-SULLIVAN PA-TIOGA PA-
UNION PA-WARREN PA-YORK PA-
620 AM EDT THU MAY 6 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING WILL PUSH A
LINE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING. STRONG AND PERHAPS DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG A WARM FRONT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...AND AGAIN LATER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION.

LAMBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1132 PM EDT THU MAY 6 2004

PAZ004-005-010-017-070800-
CLEARFIELD PA-ELK PA-MCKEAN PA-WARREN PA-
1132 PM EDT THU MAY 6 2004

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 400 AM EDT
FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

CLEARFIELD...ELK...MCKEAN AND WARREN.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...
LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING...PEOPLE SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STRONG
BUILDING. DO NOT STAND BY WINDOWS. DONT USE TELEPHONES OR ELECTRICAL
APPLIANCES UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. IF YOU
ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER FROM THE WEATHER IN A STRONG
BUILDING. DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ARE ALL POSSIBLE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. STAY INSIDE AWAY
FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS
OR UPDATES.

DANGELO