Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
708 PM EDT MON APR 19 2004

.UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPIRED WIND ADVISORY. LINE OF
CONVECTION WITH COLD FRONT NOW THREATENING NW MTNS WITH SVR WEATHER.
SFC REPORTS IN VICINITY OF LK ERIE SHOWING GUSTS IN THE 40-50MPH
RANGE WITH FROPA.

FITZGERALD
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING WRN PA AROUND NIGHTFALL. SHUD HAVE
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO I DONT EXPECT BIG
THINGS FROM IT AS FAR AS CONVECTION GOES. SYSTEM MOVES OFF RAPIDLY
TOMORROW BEFORE NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO APPROACH FOR TUES NITE AND WED.
THIS SEEMS LIKE IT WILL MARK THE START OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS
GUID SUGGESTS WE LOSE THE ERN RIDGE AND START TO TRANSITION INTO A
BROAD SWLY FLOW AND EVENTUALLY ANOTHER TROUGH IN THE ERN US. SO
INITIALLY A FRONTAL SYSTEM STRINGS OUT WITH A SERIES OF WAVES TO
DEAL WITH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN COOLER WITH MORE
UNSETTLED WX POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.

JL

END OF WEEK INTO WEEKEND LOOKS UNSETTLED AS MENTIONED ABOVE BUT
STILL LITTLE CLARITY AS TO TIMING OF ANY SIG PCPN. GUIDANCE SHOW
POSSIBILITY OF TROFFINESS/COASTAL LOW STILL AFFECTING CWA ON MONDAY.

TERMINALS SHOULD NOT POSE A PROBLEM THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY.
ISOLATED RW/TRW MOVING INTO A VERY DRY ATMOS...MAY SEE SPOTTY BRIEF
MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING ASSOC WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT MANAGE TO HOLD
TOGETHER INTO THE CTRL MTNS.

JL

RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 8PM FOR ENTIRE CWA. EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE IN VELOCITY
AFTER SUNSET AND SWITCH TO MORE WESTERLY WITH FROPA LATER THIS
EVENING. COOLING TEMPS BEHIND FROPA AND ANY PCPN WILL INCREASE
HUMIDITIES SOMEWHAT...BRINGING US ABOVE RF CRIT. HOWEVER LINGERING
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND FROPA WILL KEEP ELEVATED RISK OF SIGNIFICANT
WILDFIRE BEHAVIOR INTO TUE MORN.

GARTNER
&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
520 AM EDT MON APR 19 2004

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-191700-
ADAMS PA-BEDFORD PA-BLAIR PA-CAMBRIA PA-CAMERON PA-CLEARFIELD PA-
COLUMBIA PA-CUMBERLAND PA-DAUPHIN PA-ELK PA-FRANKLIN PA-FULTON PA-
HUNTINGDON PA-JUNIATA PA-LANCASTER PA-LEBANON PA-MCKEAN PA-
MIFFLIN PA-MONTOUR PA-NORTHERN CENTRE PA-NORTHERN CLINTON PA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-PERRY PA-POTTER PA-
SCHUYLKILL PA-SNYDER PA-SOMERSET PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-
SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-SULLIVAN PA-TIOGA PA-
UNION PA-WARREN PA-YORK PA-
520 AM EDT MON APR 19 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION...A HEIGHTENED RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT WILDFIRES EXISTS
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...PARTICULARLY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH AFTER 11 AM. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45
AND 50 MPH WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE RIDGE
TOPS.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTS OF THE
SAME MAGNITUDE. AFTER THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THESE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...COMBINED WITH LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE A HIGHER THAN NORMAL RISK FOR
SIGNIFICANT WILDFIRES ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
GREATEST RISK WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS DURING THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

KL/BL