Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS State College, PA
NWS State College, PA issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 20, 2004, 2:42 PM EDT for Centre County, Pennsylvania. It was in force for 48 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 20, 2004, 2:42 PM EDT (18:42 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 20, 2004, 3:30 PM EDT
- In force
- 48 min
- Issued by
- NWS State College, PA
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Centre County, PA
The radar
The State College radar (KCCX), 43 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The watch it was issued in
The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.
| Issued | Product | Office | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2:05 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 5 hr |
The nearest sounding before it
Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 6.7 hours before the alert went out and 219 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 410 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -118 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1428 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 30 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 2 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 24 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.2
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000
WUUS51 KCTP 201842
SVRCTP
PAC027-201930-
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
240 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRE COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
* UNTIL 330 PM EDT
* AT 240 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER PLEASANT GAP...OR 4 MILES SOUTH OF
BELLEFONTE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
ZION AROUND 245 PM EDT...
MILLHEIM AND POE VALLEY STATE PARK AROUND 300 PM EDT...
REBERSBURG AROUND 305 PM EDT...
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS STORM IS A DAMAGING WIND GUST AND LARGE
HAIL. EXPECT GUSTS TO EXCEED 60 MPH. THESE WINDS CAN EASILY KNOCK
DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES...AND CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE. LARGE HAIL
IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS INSIDE A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER...AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING.
3/4 INCH HAIL WAS REPORTED IN STORMSTOWN FROM THIS STORM. IF
YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...PUT YOUR CAR IN A GARAGE AND MOVE
TO A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.
PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772.
LAT...LON 4086 7737 4081 7750 4076 7778 4092 7784
4101 7757 4096 7752 4097 7748 4098 7734
4103 7717
$$
JL/PJWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 20, 10:15 AM EDT, 4 hours 27 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 20, 10:15 AM EDT, 4 hours 27 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1015 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... A FEW SHWRS MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN TIER EARLY THIS MORNING AND QUICKLY DIMINISHED AS THEY MOVED EAST. THIS AREA WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST UPPER LVL DYNAMICS FOR SVR WX. SPC HAS MOST OF CWA IN SLIGHT RISK AS OF 1230Z...EXCLUDING ONLY OUR FAR SE COUNTIES. CLOUDS IN THE VICINITY OF BOUNDARY TRYING TO KEEP SFC HEATING IN CHECK...HOWEVER ENOUGH MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL STRONG/SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT. ETA/GFS DIFFER ON TIMING/TRACK OF SFC LOW/RAIN SHIELD FOR THIS AFT/EVE...WITH GFS TRACKING WV FURTHER EAST AND MAKING PCP EARLIER. ETA SHOWS A MORE WARM-SECTOR TYPE SCENARIO WITH MAIN PCP STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT. OF COURSE...CONVECTION IS STILL VERY LIKELY GIVEN LIS -4 TO -6 AND SB CAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG PER 12Z KPIT SOUNDING. PWS (1.5+) ALSO INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALONG WITH DECENT LLVL JET AND MOISTURE...ONLY ENHANCING SHRW/TSTRORM ACTIVITY. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004 AVIATION... AS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS DUE TO BR THIS MORNING...WITH SOME POCKETS OF IFR AS WELL. FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE...HOWEVER WITH A VERY HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...MVFR CONDS DUE TO HAZE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY LOCATIONS TODAY. EXCEPT FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA THIS MORNING...BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS (KBFD/KJST)...THEN SPREADING EAST THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDS WILL ACCOMPANY STORMS...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY. SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)... SVR WX AND HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 30 HRS...BUT THEN A BIG CHANGE COMES TO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL ON-GOING AT THIS HOUR...BUT SEEM TO BE WANING. THE PESKY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTH LATER THIS MORNING AND PUT MOST OF THE REGION INTO THE WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL CREATE HHH CONDITIONS...ESP ACROSS THE LWR SUSQ. WL MENTION IT IN THE ZONES...AS HEAT INDICIES MIGHT REACH INTO THE MID/UPR 90S FOR A TIME THIS AFTN. THIS SOUP WILL FUEL SHRA/TSRA OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA...AS A SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER KFD LATE TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT. ONLY SCT THINGS SHOULD POP UP IN THE SOUTH TODAY...WITH THE LACK OF A TRIGGER AND A BIGGER CAP AS YOU MOVE SOUTH. SVR WX PARAMS GET NASTY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION THIS AFTN/EVE WITH >2000 CAPES...-4 TO -5 LI/S AND A LOT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR (45 TO 50 KTS). HELICITIES COULD GET LOCALLY HIGH (>300) AS WINDS COULD BACK SIGNIFICANTLY (ESP NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND NEAR KIPT - AS THEY TEND TO GO TO A STRAIGHT EAST WIND IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS) AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS TO OUR WEST AS IT MOVES NEWRD. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SVR STORMS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY...ESP IN THE NWRN COUNTIES WHERE HPC AND MDL GUIDANCE PUT THE BULLSEYE OF UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAFL THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HRS. PWATS REACH NEAR 2 INCHES OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA...BUT MOST FOCUSED AREA OF HEAVY PRECIP SHOULD STAY RIGHT ALONG THE TRACK OF THE LOW (IN OUR NW COS). THANKFULY...THIS AREA HAS HAD ONLY A HALF OF AN INCH OF PRECIP FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH SO FAR. THEY MIGHT BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS BETTER THAN SAY THE LWR SUSQ. WL MENTION HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTN/TONIGHT AT THIS POINT...BUT ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO SEE IF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WOULD BE NECESSARY. AS THE LOW PASSES IT WRAPS LOTS OF DRY AIR INTO THE REGION AND DRIES US UP BY LATE SAT MORNING. JUST A LINGERING SHOWER MIGHT BE FOUND IN THE LWR SUSQ IN THE AFTN ON SAT. OTHERWISE...BRIGHTER AND DRIER DAYS ARE AHEAD. LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST...JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO A SOME OF THE GRIDS. DRY PATTERN SEEMING MORE LIKELY WITH EACH PASSING DAY...AS A BONAFIDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE FOR NIGHTTIME LOWS DUE TO LOW MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. && SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...STEINBUGL
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 20, 3:32 AM EDT, 11 hours 10 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 332 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066-210731- ADAMS PA-BEDFORD PA-BLAIR PA-CAMBRIA PA-CAMERON PA-CLEARFIELD PA- COLUMBIA PA-CUMBERLAND PA-DAUPHIN PA-ELK PA-FRANKLIN PA-FULTON PA- HUNTINGDON PA-JUNIATA PA-LANCASTER PA-LEBANON PA-MCKEAN PA- MIFFLIN PA-MONTOUR PA-NORTHERN CENTRE PA-NORTHERN CLINTON PA- NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-PERRY PA-POTTER PA- SCHUYLKILL PA-SNYDER PA-SOMERSET PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA- SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-SULLIVAN PA-TIOGA PA- UNION PA-WARREN PA-YORK PA- 332 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED-OUT FRONT OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD TODAY AS A WARM FRONT. THE HOT AND HUMID AIR FLOWING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL FUEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT IN NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MINOR FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN TORRENTIAL RAINS...BUT THE AREA WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED HAS BEEN RATHER DRY RECENTLY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 20, 10:35 AM EDT, 4 hours 7 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1035 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004 PAZ036-056>059-063-210110- CUMBERLAND PA-DAUPHIN PA-FRANKLIN PA-LEBANON PA-PERRY PA- SCHUYLKILL PA- 1035 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004 ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED-OUT FRONT OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THE HOT AND HUMID AIR FLOWING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL FUEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MINOR FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN TORRENTIAL RAINS...BUT THE AREA WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED HAS BEEN RATHER DRY RECENTLY. PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046- 049>053-210110- BEDFORD PA-BLAIR PA-CAMBRIA PA-CAMERON PA-CLEARFIELD PA-COLUMBIA PA- ELK PA-FULTON PA-HUNTINGDON PA-JUNIATA PA-MCKEAN PA-MIFFLIN PA- MONTOUR PA-NORTHERN CENTRE PA-NORTHERN CLINTON PA- NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-POTTER PA-SNYDER PA- SOMERSET PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-SOUTHERN CLINTON PA- SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-SULLIVAN PA-TIOGA PA-UNION PA-WARREN PA- 1035 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004 ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED-OUT FRONT OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THE HOT AND HUMID AIR FLOWING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL FUEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MINOR FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN TORRENTIAL RAINS...BUT THE AREA WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED HAS BEEN RATHER DRY RECENTLY.
Special weather statement, Aug 20, 2:16 PM EDT, 26 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 216 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004 PAZ006-010>012-017>019-024>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059- 063-202300- BLAIR PA-CAMBRIA PA-CAMERON PA-CLEARFIELD PA-COLUMBIA PA-CUMBERLAND PA-DAUPHIN PA-ELK PA-HUNTINGDON PA-JUNIATA PA-LEBANON PA-MIFFLIN PA-MONTOUR PA-NORTHERN CENTRE PA-NORTHERN CLINTON PA-NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-PERRY PA-POTTER PA-SCHUYLKILL PA-SNYDER PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-SULLIVAN PA-TIOGA PA-UNION PA- 216 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... BLAIR...CAMBRIA...CAMERON...CENTRE...CLEARFIELD...CLINTON... COLUMBIA...CUMBERLAND...DAUPHIN...ELK...HUNTINGDON...JUNIATA... LEBANON...LYCOMING...MIFFLIN...MONTOUR...NORTHUMBERLAND...PERRY... POTTER...SCHUYLKILL...SNYDER...SULLIVAN...TIOGA AND UNION. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS... LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
Local storm report, Aug 20, 2:25 PM EDT, 17 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
225 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0210 PM HAIL 2 S PORT MATILDA 40.77N 78.05W
08/20/2004 0.75 INCH CENTRE PA PUBLIC
&&
RHSpecial weather statement, Aug 20, 2:33 PM EDT, 9 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 233 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004 PAZ019-045-201900- SOUTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CLINTON- 233 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRE AND CLINTON COUNTIES... AT 232 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF BELLEFONTE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR CENTRE HALL AROUND 240 PM...ZION AROUND 245 PM AND MILLHEIM AROUND 300 PM. THIS STORM HAS THE CAPABILITY OF CAUSING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. JL
The office that day
Everything else NWS State College, PA issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 1:42 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Centre | 48 min |
| Aug 20, 2:29 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Lycoming | 61 min |
| Aug 20, 3:11 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Union | 64 min |
| Aug 20, 3:25 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Lycoming | 50 min |
| Aug 20, 3:46 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Columbia | 59 min |
| Aug 20, 3:48 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Montour, Northumberland | 42 min |
| Aug 20, 3:55 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Sullivan | 50 min |
| Aug 20, 4:01 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Clearfield | 89 min |
| Aug 20, 5:04 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Centre | 56 min |
| Aug 20, 5:19 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Schuylkill | 56 min |
| Aug 20, 5:23 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Fulton | 22 min |
| Aug 20, 5:33 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Franklin | 57 min |
| Aug 20, 6:36 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Cumberland | 69 min |
| Aug 20, 6:49 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Clearfield, Elk | 56 min |
| Aug 20, 7:30 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | CTP | Union | 6 hr |
| Aug 20, 7:30 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Franklin | 60 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Pennsylvania, 2004Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.