Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS State College, PA

000 
WGUS71 KCTP 272149
FFSCTP
PAC055-272215-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
549 PM EDT TUE JUL 27 2004


...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY
HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS AND CREEKS IN
THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO RECEDE...ENDING THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. EVEN THOUGH STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE RECEDING...
SOME ROADWAYS STILL MAY BE COVERED WITH WATER. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED
TO AVOID DRIVING THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

$$

DEVOIR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
307 PM EDT TUE JUL 27 2004

.SYNOPSIS...
STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MICHIGAN WILL FINALLY START TO MOVE NE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...CAUSING THE SFC LOW OVER WESTERN
PA AND TRAILING SFC TROF TO SHIFT EAST AS WELL. THIS WILL THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO MOVE EAST INTO THE MID AND LOWER
SUSQ THIS EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF OUR CWFA BY WED MORNING.
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH EXTREME
SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WITH THE TROF AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THERE AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL PA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING ONLY SCT SHOWERS/T-STORMS. THUR WILL FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FINALLY BUILDING ACROSS THE NE CONUS...SIGNIFYING DRYING
CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS.
&&

.AVIATION...
IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT TODAY WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL...LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG RESTRICTING VISIBILITY TO
LOCALLY UNDER A MILE . A SLOW-MOVING...OCCLUDED SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED NE OF KPIT AND ADVANCING WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE CLASSIC STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS MOST OF CWA. EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS TO CONTINUE THIS
EVENING WITH IFR VISBYS AND CIGS. A FEW ISOLD TSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER SUSQ...WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED
FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION AND CONVECTION. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO
INCREASED OVER THIS REGION. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT GIVEN TODAYS RAINFALL...LIGHT WINDS AND VERY MOIST PBL. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN...SIGNALLING A CLEARING
AND DRYING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
ETA HAS FINALLY COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH GFS AT THE TAIL END OF THIS
EVENT...AND BOTH MODELS AGREE ON POSITION OF MAIN FEATURES.
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 850MB JET (+2-3 STDEV) AND HIGH PWATS (1.75 TO
2.25 INCHES) WILL SHIFT INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...BEFORE
MOVING EAST OF OUR CWFA OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS HAVE SHOT UP INTO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ AS WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH INTO
CENTRAL PA. SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST HAVE ALLOWED SOME
INSTABILITY TO BUILD THERE...WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING DUE TO SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS.

WILL HOLD ONTO HIGH POPS EAST THRU MIDNIGHT...THEN TAPER DOWN
TOWARDS MORNING. INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW WITH THE UPPER TROF AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD...BUT CAPES WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND 200-400 J/KG EXCEPT 400-800 J/KG POSSIBLE ACROSS
LOWER SUSQ. ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS...BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL
LOOKS LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY. ALSO...FINALLY SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WILL  ALLOW FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE TOMORROW...WHICH WILL
HELP GET TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. A MUCH DESERVED DRY DAY
THUR...WITH DECENT SLUG OF NVA AND ASSOC DOWNWARD MOTION MOVING THRU
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. STRONG CAP WILL INHIBIT SHOWER FORMATION
WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CU AROUND.
&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
DESPITE THE WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN FOR LATE THIS WEEK...THE
PATTERN GOES RIGHT BACK TO FAIRLY WET ONE. THE 5H HEIGHTS DO SEEM TO
RISE SLIGHTLY...BUT LONG WAVE PATTERN STILL ONE OF TROFFINESS OVER
THE EAST/CENTRAL CONUS. SFC FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A DECAYING FRONT
TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND LINGER FOR A LONG TIME. IT
LOOKS WET.

DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO FCST GRIDS FOR THE
PERIOD. POPS AT CHC/HI CHC THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND AND ALL THE
WAY INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY BECAUSE THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LARGELY
DIURNAL AND THE ULTIMATE FRONTAL POSITION WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE
RAINS SETS UP.

TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO BUT PROBABLY JUST BELOW NORMS...WITH CLIMO
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES/8H TEMPS...BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIP MAY KEEP THINGS
A NOTCH COOLER.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE STEADY WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS GENERALLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA...SO
THE MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL COME FROM SLOW MOVING AND TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. WILL CANCEL
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NW MTNS...BUT WILL KEEP WATCH GOING FOR SE 2/3
OF THE CWFA.
&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES PAZ012-018-019-024>028-
     033>036-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066 UNTIL 8 PM EDT.
&&

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/HYDROLOGY...VILLANI
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...DANGELO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
509 AM EDT TUE JUL 27 2004

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-280857-
ADAMS PA-BEDFORD PA-BLAIR PA-CAMBRIA PA-CAMERON PA-CLEARFIELD PA-
COLUMBIA PA-CUMBERLAND PA-DAUPHIN PA-ELK PA-FRANKLIN PA-FULTON PA-
HUNTINGDON PA-JUNIATA PA-LANCASTER PA-LEBANON PA-MCKEAN PA-
MIFFLIN PA-MONTOUR PA-NORTHERN CENTRE PA-NORTHERN CLINTON PA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-PERRY PA-POTTER PA-
SCHUYLKILL PA-SNYDER PA-SOMERSET PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-
SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-SULLIVAN PA-TIOGA PA-
UNION PA-WARREN PA-YORK PA-
509 AM EDT TUE JUL 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TO THE REGION. MOST PLACES WILL SEE CLOSE TO ONE INCH OF RAIN TODAY.
HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

THE GREATEST THREAT OF FLOODING OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS WILL BE
THIS MORNING...WHILE AREAS FURTHER SOUTHEAST WILL SEE THE GREATEST
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1035 AM EDT TUE JUL 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     FLOOD            HASTINGS                40.66N 78.71W
07/27/2004                   CAMBRIA            PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL ROADS AND BASEMENTS FLOODED

&&

JV