Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS State College, PA

000 
WGUS71 KCTP 221520
FFSCTP
PAC123-221715-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1108 AM EDT SAT MAY 22 2004


...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR WARREN COUNTY HAS
BEEN CANCELED...

THE HEAVY RAIN ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA THIS MORNING. STREAMS AND 
CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA ARE STILL RUNNING HIGH BUT ANY FLOODING 
WHICH MAY HAVE OCCURRED HAS RECEDED.  HOWEVER ECKLES ROAD IN SUGAR 
GROVE TOWNSHIP IS STILL CLOSED. OTHER ROADWAYS MAY STILL HAVE 
PONDED WATER AND MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 4195 7954 4168 7955 4169 7902 4197 7903

$$

BUDD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
726 AM EDT SAT MAY 22 2004

.UPDATE...

QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM.  ADDITIONALLY ADDED
SOUTHERN CLINTON AND SOUTHERN LYCOMING ZONES INTO THE FLOOD WATCH.
EACH AREA GOT HIT WITH A SOMEWHAT BRIEF...BUT HEAVY RAIN EVENT LAST
NIGHT. CLINTON COUNTY 911 CENTER REPORTED 1.9 OF RAIN IN 30 MIN
LAST NIGHT...CAUSED MINOR PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...ETC.  THUS THE
RAIN PRIMED BASIN...MORE RAIN OCCURRING ATTM IN THAT AREA SO ANY
ADDITIONAL TRW THIS AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO PROBLEMS.

ONDREJIK

.SYNOPSIS...
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED FROM NORTHERN PA WEST THROUGH SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN AND WISC/ILL BORDER...THEN WEST INTO IOWA. SEVERAL LARGE
AREAS OF RAIN MOVING ALONG THIS FRONT WITH EASTERN MOST AREA MOVING
INTO WESTERN PA ATTM. EXPECT MODERATE AMT OF RAIN OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD SEE SECOND SYSTEM HOLD
TIGHT (SOME WEAKENING) AS MOVES EAST...BUT STILL SHOULD MOVE INTO PA
LATER TODAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVING INTO WESTERN PA AND HEADING INTO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PART OF CWA. THIS AREA HAS BEEN HIT HARD WITH
RAIN OVER THE LAST 36 HRS AND WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL
WARNINGS. HAVE FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN PART
OF CWA...SOUTH INTO THE LAURELS UNTIL 8 AM. AT THIS POINT WILL HAVE
TO SERIOUSLY CONSIDER EXTENDING FLOOD WATCH LATER THIS MORNING AND
POSSIBLY EXPANDING IT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY.

ALTHOUGH TREND SHOULD BE FOR COMPLEX TO MOVE NORTH...IT APPEARS
MODELS ARE PUTTING AN OVER EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN TURN AND ACTUAL
TRACKS ARE MOVING A BIT TO THE SOUTH.

AFTERNOON FCST STILL FOR QUITE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING LIFTED INDEX OF -3 TO -5 AND K OF AROUND 30 AND TT
OF 45-50. NO SIG SHEAR TO SPEAK OF THIS AFTERNOON AND UPPER WINDS
WOULD LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL. HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS
IMPRESSIVE WITH PW IN THE 1.2 TO 1.5 RANGE...SO WATCH AREAS THAT DO
GET RAIN FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING.

TEMPS THIS WEEKEND REMAIN HIGH AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S GIVING US A TASTE OF SUMMER.

.LONG TERM...

TEMPERATURES MODERATE AS WE MOVE INTO THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS
BACKING OFF INTO THE 70S AND DEW POINTS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 50S AND MAYBE LOWER 60S (FAR SOUTHEAST CWA). HOWEVER
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE AND THUS CHANCE OF TRW IN JUST ABOUT
EVERY PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

OUTSIDE OF TSTORMS...EXPECT PATCHY MVFR VSBYS THROUGH 14Z...EXCEPT
ISOLATED IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS FURTHER N (I.E. KBFD). IN/NEAR
TSTMS...EXPECT TEMPO IFR VSBYS/CIGS...AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED WIND
GUSTS > 25 KT. AS FOR TIMING OF TSTMS...EXPECT GREATEST CHC THROUGH
15Z WITH REPEATED MCSS APPROACHING FROM W.  AFTER 15Z...ACTIVITY
MAY WEAKEN/SHIFT FURTHER N...BUT HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HARRISBURG     86  67  88  67 /  30  30  30  10
WILLIAMSPORT   84  63  86  64 /  50  50  40  20
BRADFORD       78  60  78  60 /  50  60  50  40
JOHNSTOWN      80  65  81  64 /  30  30  30  10
ALTOONA        85  65  85  65 /  30  30  40  10
STATE COLLEGE  83  65  83  66 /  50  50  40  10
SELINSGROVE    87  64  87  68 /  40  40  30  10
LANCASTER      86  66  88  66 /  30  30  40  10
YORK           86  66  87  67 /  30  30  30  10
&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS THRU 8 AM.

&&

ONDREJIK/LIPTON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
525 AM EDT SAT MAY 22 2004

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-230916-
ADAMS PA-BEDFORD PA-BLAIR PA-CAMBRIA PA-CAMERON PA-CLEARFIELD PA-
COLUMBIA PA-CUMBERLAND PA-DAUPHIN PA-ELK PA-FRANKLIN PA-FULTON PA-
HUNTINGDON PA-JUNIATA PA-LANCASTER PA-LEBANON PA-MCKEAN PA-
MIFFLIN PA-MONTOUR PA-NORTHERN CENTRE PA-NORTHERN CLINTON PA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-PERRY PA-POTTER PA-
SCHUYLKILL PA-SNYDER PA-SOMERSET PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-
SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-SULLIVAN PA-TIOGA PA-
UNION PA-WARREN PA-YORK PA-
525 AM EDT SAT MAY 22 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE COMMONWEALTH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ONE OF THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN. AREAS THAT RECENTLY RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN
SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPID RESPONSES IN AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY AND THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMS CAN PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING EXISTS.

SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
501 AM EDT SAT MAY 22 2004

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-221901-
ADAMS PA-BEDFORD PA-BLAIR PA-CAMBRIA PA-CAMERON PA-CLEARFIELD PA-
COLUMBIA PA-CUMBERLAND PA-DAUPHIN PA-ELK PA-FRANKLIN PA-FULTON PA-
HUNTINGDON PA-JUNIATA PA-LANCASTER PA-LEBANON PA-MCKEAN PA-
MIFFLIN PA-MONTOUR PA-NORTHERN CENTRE PA-NORTHERN CLINTON PA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-PERRY PA-POTTER PA-
SCHUYLKILL PA-SNYDER PA-SOMERSET PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-
SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-SULLIVAN PA-TIOGA PA-
UNION PA-WARREN PA-YORK PA-
501 AM EDT SAT MAY 22 2004

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...

THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER LOCATED IN NORMAL OKLAHOMA INDICATES
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE COMMONWEALTH AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE MORNING. AS
TEMPERATURES RISE THIS AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE AND THE THREAT FOR STRONG WIND AND HAIL WILL INCREASE.