Tornado Warning 5, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
425 AM CDT TUE APR 6 2004

.SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE BIG BEND WITH A
FLARE UP OF CONVECTION FROM THE HILL COUNTRY SOUTHWEST TO WEST OF
EAGLE PASS. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THIS
AREA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 70 KNOT 250 MB JET STREAK MOVES
THROUGH. GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE SUSTAINING
THE ACTIVITY WITH KCRP VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING 35 TO 40 KNOTS AT
850 MB. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS
MODELS SHOW STRONG THERMAL ADVECTION ZONE SETTING UP OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WITH CAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR 50-60
KNOTS...THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL EXIST AS THIS LINE OF CONVECTION MOVES EASTWARD. WITH
ANTECEDENT WET CONDITIONS FROM PRIOR RAINFALL...FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE LOW OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL RETAIN CURRENT
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONFIGURATION FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT EXTEND THE
TIME INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON(20Z).

CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER
NIGHT...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. A WARMER DAY IS IN STORE FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS AROUND 90 DEGREES OUT WEST. CAN NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING ON THE SEABREEZE WEDNESDAY BUT
FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION IN THE ZONES.

&&

.LONG-TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE
FOR COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH TEXAS WILL
FINALLY MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN
DRYING CONDITIONS AND FAIR SKIES ON THU/FRI.  RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN
THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
HEATING WILL RESULT IN INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS BY
THURSDAY.  BOTH ETA/GFS SHOW LIS RUNNING IN THE -8 TO -11 RANGE
DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON ON BOTH THU AND FRI.
GUIDANCE ALSO CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
WEST TEXAS AT THIS TIME.  SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE FROM THIS
FEATURE TO INITIATE SOME AFTN CONVECTION ALONG SEA BREEZE BOTH THU
AND FRI AFTERNOONS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THE INTERIOR COUNTIES FOR THOSE DAYS.  GFS/EURO MODELS CONTINUE TO
BE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINING COLD FRONT DOWN INTO DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS ON SUNDAY.  CANADIAN MODEL CONTINUES WITH A LESS AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION AND HENCE DOES NOT SHOW NEAR THE COOL TEMPS OR PRECIP THAT
IS INDICATED BY THE GFS.  GIVEN THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN OVER THE PAC
NW...DOESNT SEEM UNREASONABLE THAT A SHOT OF COOLER AIR COULD MAKE
ITS WAY DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER WILL NOT GO QUITE AS COOL AS
MOS NUMBERS WHICH ARE IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES ON SUNDAY.  PRECIP CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  HAVE PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP UNTIL SUNDAY.

&&

MARINE...WINDS REMAIN MARGINAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS BUT SEAS REMAIN AROUND 7 FEET SO WILL CONTINUE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF WINDS INCREASING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS TRANSLATES TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI  81 66 86 66 83 / 40 10 10 00 10
VICTORIA        77 64 85 64 83 / 80 10 10 00 10
LAREDO          86 66 90 67 87 / 30 10 05 10 05

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 20Z
                                   TXZ229>234-245>247
                                   SCA FOR OFFSHORE WATERS.

89/TMT..SHORT-TERM
91/JD....LONG-TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
810 AM CDT TUE APR 6 2004

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-071100-
ARANSAS-BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-BEE-CALHOUN-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
DUVAL-GOLIAD-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-LASALLE-LIVE OAK-MCMULLEN-NUECES-
REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-VICTORIA-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-WEBB-
810 AM CDT TUE APR 6 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 100 PM CDT FOR THE COUNTIES OF ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...
GOLIAD...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO AND VICTORIA.
IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS NORTH OF AN ENCINAL TO
TYNAN TO ROCKPORT LINE. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD OCCUR
WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

TMT/TR/WC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
800 AM CDT TUE APR 6 2004

TXZ231>234-243>247-061800-
ARANSAS-BEE-CALHOUN-GOLIAD-LIVE OAK-NUECES-REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-
VICTORIA-
800 AM CDT TUE APR 6 2004

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH VALID UNTIL
100 PM CDT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WATCH INCLUDES THE COUNTIES OF
ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
PATRICIO AND VICTORIA. SOME CITIES INCLUDED IN THE WATCH ARE ARANSAS
PASS...BEEVILLE...CORPUS CHRISTI...GEORGE WEST...GOLIAD...
INGLESIDE...MATHIS...PORT ARANSAS...PORT LAVACA...PORT OCONNOR...
PORTLAND...REFUGIO...ROBSTOWN...ROCKPORT...SEADRIFT...SINTON...
SKIDMORE...THREE RIVERS AND VICTORIA.

A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES TO OCCUR
IN OR NEAR THE WATCH AREA. IF TORNADOES DO IN FACT DEVELOP OR ARE
SPOTTED...THEN A TORNADO WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION. RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE
READY TO QUICKLY ACT IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA. IF
SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS YOUR AREA...THEN MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM
AND LAY DOWN ON THE FLOOR. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...LAY FLAT DOWN ON THE
GROUND...PREFERABLY IN A DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT. NEVER TRY TO OUTRUN
SEVERE WEATHER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS REGARDING THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

FOR THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS AND WARNINGS...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CRP

TE