Tornado Warning 15, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1008 AM CDT THU JUN 24 2004

WILL RETAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE
WATERS AS LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND ASSOCIATED FORCING CONTINUES.
WILL DROP SCEC OVER THESE AREAS AS HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ARE THE RESULT
OF CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS REACHING 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. ANOTHER
CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS ACROSS MEXICO WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A VORTICITY MAXIMUM PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS
ABOUT 75 MILES WEST OF MONCLOVA MEXICO AND WILL MOVE EAST INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. STRONG DIFFLUENCE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
NOSE OF THE 250HPA JETMAX APPROACHES. DIABATIC HEATING WILL CREATE A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER
CONVERGENCE ZONE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SEABREEZE DEVELOPS AND
MEETS WITH THE WESTERLY WIND ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...INITIAL
SUBSIDENCE WEST OF GLFMEX CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND THE VORTICITY
MAXIMUM REMAINING SOUTH OF THE REGION...WILL INDICATE JUST CHANCE
POPS AND SHADE THEM TOWARD THE LOWER END WITH THE ACTIVITY BEGINNING
AROUND MID AFTERNOON. WILL INDICATE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES INITIALLY
THEM BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE IN THE DAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
APPEAR OKAY BUT WILL ADJUST WINDS.

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

85

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1206 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-250000-
ARANSAS-BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-BEE-CALHOUN-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
DUVAL-GOLIAD-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-LASALLE-LIVE OAK-MCMULLEN-NUECES-
REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-VICTORIA-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-WEBB-
1206 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP
ACROSS INLAND AREAS DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND BRIEF STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL RANGE FROM 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 1
INCH. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM COTULLA TO GEORGE WEST TO VICTORIA AND
POINTS NORTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH
COPIOUS MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. THE COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE FOREGOING UPPER LOW DISSIPATES AND
IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. AN INCREASE IN MAXIMUM SURFACE TEMPERATURE
WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE MOISTURE TO RESULT IN HIGH HEAT INDEX
VALUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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