Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
755 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

.DISCUSSION...AFTER LOOKING AT THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING WITH THE STRONG
INVERSION AROUND 80H AND VEERING FLOW AT 85H...FIRST THOUGHTS WERE
TO AGREE WITH MODELS THAT ACTIVITY WOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA.
BUT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH VORTICITY
MAXIMUM NEAR SAN ANGELO IS OVERCOMING THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OVER
THE AREA. 00Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWED VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. VERY IMPRESSIVE 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH
30 KNOT LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 60 KNOTS AT 50H. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
IS LYING OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE COASTAL BEND WHICH WILL
KEEP THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS REGION FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS UNTIL THE FRONT...MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES AT THIS TIME...MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
AFTER 06Z. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO BUMP UP POPS AND INCLUDE SEVERE
THREAT. SPC HAS JUST ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR THE NORTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS UNTIL 2 AM.

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS.

&&

TMT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
817 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-241217-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
ARANSAS-BEE-CALHOUN-DUVAL-GOLIAD-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-LA SALLE-LIVE OAK-
MCMULLEN-NUECES-REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-VICTORIA-WEBB-
817 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE LIKELY WITH THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WITH A STRONG WIND PROFILE
AND A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS...ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVING
EAST OF THE COASTAL BEND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN STRONG NORTH WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL
BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS THIS EVENING.

TMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
825 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MISSION VALLEY          28.85N 97.16W
11/23/2004                   VICTORIA           TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            SPOTTERS REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUD AND WIND DAMAGE IN MISSION
            VALLEY AREA.

&&

JM