Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
350 PM CST SAT NOV 20 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...WARM FRONT HAS GRADUALLY SHIFTED
NORTH OF AREA AND NOW LIES FROM NEAR GALVESTON TO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
COTULLA AND UVALDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST IN MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ASSOC W/ A TROUGH EXTENDING NEAR BEEVILLE TO KINGSVILLE
LINE...POSSIBLY AIDED BY SOME WEAK MID-UPR ENERGY. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN AFTER
SUNSET...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS NERN COASTAL BEND. WILL SHOW SCT POPS IN FAR NE
TONIGHT W/ ISOLD/SLT CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. WILL SEE SOME LOW STRATUS
AND FOG ESP INLAND LATE TONIGHT GIVEN MOIST LOW LEVELS AND
DECOUPLING WINDS. CURRENT DEWPOINT READINGS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
SUGGEST LEANING ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY BEST MOISTURE WILL SHIFT INTO NRN ZONES AND TOWARD S/CEN
TEXAS NEAR THE SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT. ANY UPPER ENERGY IN THE SRN
STREAM JET WILL MAINLY REMAIN NORTHERN/NWRN SECTIONS OR FURTHER
NORTH INTO CEN TEXAS. STILL...MODELS SHOW MOIST SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WITH NO CAP SO SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH SOME HEATING ON SUN. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MEAN
BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE INLAND ONCE AGAIN AND WILL SHOW
ISOLD POPS NEAR THE COAST INCREASING TO 30-40% INLAND/NORTH. TEMPS
WILL BE WARMER ON SUN GIVEN DEEP SRLY FLOW AND WILL LEAN TOWARD
COMPROMISE BETWEEN GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT NOCTURNAL JET TO KICK WINDS TO AROUND SCA LEVELS
FOR SEVERAL HOURS WERE WARMEST WATERS EXIST OFFSHORE...BUT THINK
SCEC WILL SUFFICE NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AND NOT
EXPECTING ANY FLAGS ATTMM.

&&

.LONG-TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO RETREAT NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT KEEPING MOST OF THE
PRECIP TO THE NORTH WITH IT.  WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE SW
FLOW AND INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE
SW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  BEST LOW LEVEL THETA-E
RIDGING AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TX THROUGH LATE MONDAY...SO WILL NOT GO ANY
HIGHER THAN 30 POPS THROUGH THAT TIMEFRAME.  UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH RAPID SFC PRESSURE FALLS
AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER SOUTH TEXAS.  STRONG FRONT WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE WITH SQUALL LINE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.  GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BEST
UPPER SUPPORT TO THE NORTH WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO THE
SW AND KEEPING SOUTH TX A LITTLE MORE CAPPED...HOWEVER...CANADIAN
HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND A LITTLE
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW LEVEL VEERING.  FOR NOW WILL STAY A
LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND ONLY HAVE 30-40 POPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND WATERS FOR TUESDAY AS SOUTHERN EXTENT OF SQUALL LINE
MAY CLIP THESE AREAS.  MAY HAVE TO NUDGE POPS UP A BIT IF UPPER LOW
TAKE A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK.  STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 1025MB HIGH EXPECTED TO BE
SITUATED RIGHT OVER SOUTH TX WED NIGHT.  COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON
EXPECTED THU MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S OVER THE NW AND
NEAR 40 EAST.  WARMUP TO NEAR NORMALS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

CORPUS CHRISTI  71 82 71 81 70 / 20 20 20 20 20
VICTORIA        70 81 69 79 68 / 30 40 20 30 30
LAREDO          69 83 67 83 63 / 10 20 20 30 20
ALICE           70 84 69 81 68 / 20 30 20 20 20
ROCKPORT        72 81 73 81 70 / 30 20 20 20 20
COTULLA         68 81 67 79 61 / 20 40 30 30 30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FROM BAFFIN BAY TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20-60NM OFFSHORE.

&&

MJG...SHORT-TERM
91/JD...LONG-TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
700 AM CST SAT NOV 20 2004

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-211200-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
ARANSAS-BEE-CALHOUN-DUVAL-GOLIAD-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-LA SALLE-LIVE OAK-
MCMULLEN-NUECES-REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-VICTORIA-WEBB-
527 AM CST SAT NOV 20 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE VICTORIA
AREA AND THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL COUNTIES.  ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE...MAINLY NORTH OF A BEEVILLE TO ROCKPORT LINE...AND
PRODUCE WINDS AROUND 60 MPH OR PENNY SIZED HAIL. SOME STORMS COULD
ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY OVER THE VICTORIA AREA
AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE VICTORIA AREA AND THE NORTHERN
COASTAL COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END AS THIS
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.  SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY ACROSS THE
VICTORIA AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
GULF WATERS BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT.  OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

GW/MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
511 PM CST SAT NOV 20 2004

TXZ233-210015-
GOLIAD-
511 PM CST SAT NOV 20 2004

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING GOLIAD COUNTY...

AT 505 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF WEESATCHE...OR 6 MILES NORTH OF
GOLIAD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SCHROEDER BY 545 PM CST.

SMALL HAIL...PEA SIZED HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM ALONG WITH
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF UP TO 2 INCHES. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH MAY
ALSO OCCUR WITH THIS STORM.

JR