Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
223 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004

.SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...AN ABUNDANTLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION. 500HPA SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVER MEXICO(PER SATELLITE IMAGERY) WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AMPLE
700-300HPA DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND LAYERED
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT 250HPA DIFFLUENCE WILL
PROVIDE ADEQUATE UPPER-LEVEL FORCING. QUASI-STATIONARY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY WILL GENERATE
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND SERVE AS FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR
ENHANCED RAINFALL. WILL TREND POPS FROM HIGH-END CHANCE THIS EVENING
TO CATEGORICAL ON WEDNESDAY. WILL EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INDICATE ADDITIONAL BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS BETWEEN 3 AND 5
INCHES. CONVECTIVE MIXING AND PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION ARGUES UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.
SCEC/LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT WILL WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT RELAXES THE GRADIENT.

&&

.LONG-TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...WV IMAGERY INDICATES
AN IMPRESSIVE VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH NRN MEXICO ATTM.  THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE FCST PD.
THIS IS LINE WITH THE ETA/CANADIAN MODEL SOLNS.  THINK THE GFS IS
TOO SLOW AND SUBSEQUENTLY WAY TOO WET.  PWS AT OR ABV 2 INCHES...A
QUASI-STATIONARY FNTL BNDRY TO OUR NORTH AND PERSISTENT DIV/DIFL
ALOFT ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX WL KEEP AT LEAST SCTD
CONVECTION IN THE FCST THROUGH THU.  THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF
ECHOES WL EXIST GIVEN THE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND
WITH THE FNT AND POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS IN THE VCNTY.  WL LKLY NEED TO
EXTEND THE FFA FOR EARLY IN THE PD.  WL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
THE EAST.  BY LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
FRI...DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT AIR WL BE MAKING INROADS ACROSS SOUTH
TX BEHIND THIS INITIAL IMPULSE.  PCPN CHCS WL THEN PICK UP ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS MORE S/WV ENERGY DROPS INTO THE PERSISTENT
MID/UPR TROUGH AXIS ANCHORED TO OUR WEST.  BROAD UPR DIV/DIFL AND A
DEEP MOIST FLOW ADVECTING PWS ABV 2 INCHES WL PRODUCE SCTD
CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND.  THR TROUGH WL SLOWLY WEAKEN ON MON AND
TUE.  AS A RESULT...WL INDICATE A SLOW DRYING TREND FOR THESE LATTER
PDS.  TEMPS WL BE MODERATED BY THE PCPN THROUGHOUT THE PD.  WL
GENERALLY GO WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MOST OF THE
FCST PD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI   73 84 73 90 74 / 70 90 40 40 30
VICTORIA         71 82 71 88 72 / 70 90 50 50 30
LAREDO           75 85 74 95 76 / 70 90 30 30 20
ALICE            72 85 72 92 73 / 70 90 40 40 20
ROCKPORT         75 84 74 86 76 / 70 90 50 40 30
COTULLA          71 83 72 91 73 / 70 90 30 30 20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TXZ229>234-239>247 UNTIL 23Z WED.
SCA GMZ250-255-270-275.

&&

85/SHORT-TERM
80/MB/LONG-TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
600 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004

TXZ229>234-239>247-231100-
ARANSAS-BEE-CALHOUN-DUVAL-GOLIAD-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-LA SALLE-LIVE OAK-
MCMULLEN-NUECES-REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-VICTORIA-WEBB-
600 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN AND A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTH
TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES
POSSIBLE.  THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...BUT
AT THIS TIME THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE STALLED FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
PERSIST OVER THE AREA.  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY.  AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY...WITH THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...RESULTING IN YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TR/WC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1212 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004

TXZ243>245-221815-
ARANSAS-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-
1212 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004

...FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL BEND...

AT 1212 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HOLIDAY BEACH
TO PORTLAND TO CORPUS CHRISTI...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FUNNEL
CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS LINE. MOST OF THESE FUNNEL CLOUDS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SHOULD NOT REACH THE GROUND. HOWEVER...YOU
SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IN THE UNLIKELY EVENT A FUNNEL
DOES REACH THE GROUND.

STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

JR