Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
245 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

.SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...EXPECTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO COMMENCE SHORTLY ACROSS THE CWA.  WITH VERY SLOW STORM
MOTIONS AND RELATIVELY HIGH PWAT VALUES...COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  WV IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY WELL DEFINED UPPER-LOW OVER THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS REGION.  COLD-CORE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE
THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS LIS OF -10 TO -13
ARE DERIVED BY CURRENT MSAS.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS TONIGHT FOR
ABOUT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND THE SAME AGAIN TOMORROW.  WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW TO MAKE SURE THAT WE DO NOT END
UP ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE.  MODELS HAVE THIS LOW MEANDERING DOWN THEN
BACK UP THE COAST OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THIS WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  NO FLAGS
NECESSARY OVER THE WATERS AS WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW CRITERIA
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.LONG-TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...GFS/ETA CONSISTENT WITH THE
QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH OVR THE REGION WED...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVR THE ERN CWFA.
FURTHER...HIGH PW VALUES ARE PROGD OVR THE NERN CWFA. WL MAINTAIN
CONVECTION OVR THE CNTRL/ERN CWFA...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVR THE
NERN CWFA. UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. WL FCST LOW POPS OVR
THE CNTRL/ERN CWFA FOR THURSDAY. AFTER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVR THE REGION...THE GFS PROGS A BREAKDOWN IN IT SAT IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SOLN IS LOW GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY OF THE UPPER PATTERN WITH
THE PREVIOUS RUN. CONCUR WITH THE CANADIAN AS IT MAINTAINS AN UPPER
RIDGE. THUS...ANTICIPATE DRY CONDITIONS FRI-MON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI  75  92 76 90 / 20 30 30 20
VICTORIA        72  90 74 89 / 30 50 40 30
LAREDO          78 101 78 98 / 00 05 10 00
ALICE           72  95 73 95 / 20 30 20 20
ROCKPORT        77  88 77 84 / 30 50 40 30
COTULLA         73  97 73 94 / 05 10 20 10
&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

94/MJ...SHORT-TERM
87/WC...LONG-TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
609 APM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-142100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
ARANSAS-BEE-CALHOUN-DUVAL-GOLIAD-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-LA SALLE-LIVE OAK-
MCMULLEN-NUECES-REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-VICTORIA-WEBB-
609 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS WILL
BECOME SCATTERED ACROSS THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT.
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

BB/TMT