Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1045 AM CST FRI APR 2 2004

.SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
STRETCHES FROM SW AZ TO JUST WEST OF THE BIG BEND AND SOUTH INTO
MEXICO. UPR LVL DIVERGENT PATTERN HAS SPREAD INTO THE BIG BEND...
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW APPROACHING THE SAT AREA.
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS IN THE CRP CWA AS THE MOVE AWAY FROM THE DIVERGENT PATTERN
AND INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. SOME STREAMER TYPE
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND THIS
MORNING. FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY FOR REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOUTHERN END OF SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO TEXAS
AND SHEAR APART THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODELS DO SHOW UPR LVL
DIVERGENT PATTERN OVERSPREADING S TX AROUND 21Z BEFORE WEAKENING
AND SHIFTING NORTH. WAS CONCERNED ABOUT HOW LIMITED SUNSHINE WOULD
BE AND INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY...BUT VIS SAT SHOWING SOME BREAKS
ACROSS THE CNTRL COUNTIES AND SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. SO FEEL ERN
2/3RDS OF CWA WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THRU THE AFTERNOON. WILL
CONT LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AND STILL INCLUDE
MENTION OF ISOL SEVERE FOR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS. FORECAST FOR THIS
EVENING WILL DEPEND ON TRENDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ACROSS THE
FAR WEST MAY BE TOO HIGH GIVEN CLOUDS COVER.

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

76...SHORT TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
600 AM CST FRI APR 2 2004

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-031200-
ARANSAS-BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-BEE-CALHOUN-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
DUVAL-GOLIAD-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-LASALLE-LIVE OAK-MCMULLEN-NUECES-
REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-VICTORIA-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-WEBB-
600 AM CST FRI APR 2 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO
SOUTH TEXAS TODAY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
THE DAYTIME HOURS AND MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING AS A LINE THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH.  THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE PENNY SIZED HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 3
PM AND MIDNIGHT.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
OF THESE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.  RAIN
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE STORMS MOVE
OFFSHORE.  RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL PROVIDE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.  THE CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION.  THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS RECOMMENDED TODAY.

TR/GW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1103 AM CST FRI APR 2 2004

TXZ232-233-021745-
BEE-GOLIAD-
1103 AM CST FRI APR 2 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR DIME SIZE HAIL AND FUNNEL CLOUDS
FOR BEE AND GOLIAD COUNTIES THROUGH 1145 AM CST...

AT 1103 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 23 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GOLIAD...OR ABOUT 4 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF NORMANNA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORMANNA...CHARCO...GOLIAD AND WEESATCHE.
THIS STORM HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS.

76