Flash Flood Warning 96, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
350 AM CST MON NOV 15 2004

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BAFFIN BAY HAD
FORMED ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH/FNTL BNDRY.  THIS IS ENHANCING THE
CURRENT WIDESPREAD SHRAS/TSRAS AFFECTING THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CWFA THIS MORNING.  UPR LVL FLOW IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE WITH
GENERALLY DIFFLUENT CONDITIONS EXISTING.  AS THIS WAVE PUSHES
FURTHER INLAND TDA...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION CAN BE
EXPECTED.  THUS WITH ALL OF THIS SAID WL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND WATERS WITH LKLY POPS ELSEWHERE.
WHILE PCPN TIMING WL BE DIFFICULT...THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
THERE WL BE A DIMINISHMENT BY THIS AFTN/EVE AS MORE OF THE BOUNDARY
LYR FORCING SHIFTS GRADUALLY NWD AND WEAKENS.  HOWEVER...THIS WL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATER TNT AS THE
BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE AREA.  AN INCREASING THERMAL/INSTABILITY
GRADIENT ALONG WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY LYR CONVERGENCE WL MAINTAIN
CHC/LKLY POPS FOR TNT.  WL MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TNT GIVEN
THE PROXIMITY OF THE FNTL BNDRY...THE MODERATE E/SE LOW LVL FLOW AND
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE (PWS 1.5-1.8 INCHES).

WL MAINTAIN SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS FOR
TDA AND WL LKLY NEED TO CONTINUE THE SCA FOR TNT.  THE GRADIENT WL
ONLY SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE PD AND THE SWELLS WL BE SLOW TO DECAY
AS WELL.  MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW WL REMAIN AN ISSUE GIVEN THE HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES.  1.5-2.5 FT MSL IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST AREAS
TDA AND WL LKLY ISSUE ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT.

&&

.LONG-TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS POTENT UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL
BE SLOW TO EJECT EASTWARD.  SFC BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN SFC
OBSERVATIONS WITH TEMPS NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST VERSUS MID 50S
INLAND...WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND LIKELY BE
POSITIONED SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY.  COPIOUS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAK BOUNDARY SHOULD
WARRANT LIKELY POPS ALL LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AS UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.  UPPER FLOW BECOMES HIGHLY DIFFLUENT WED AFTN AS
85KT JET NOSES INTO THE AREA.  GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND
INSTABILITY AROUND 1200J/KG...COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT AS H5 TEMPS DROP TO -14.  WILL
TAPER POPS OFF RATHER QUICKLY THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  NEXT UPPER TROF DIVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST LATE FRIDAY WITH COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

CORPUS CHRISTI 77 69 76 66 78 / 90 60 70 70 70
VICTORIA       69 64 75 63 76 / 70 60 70 70 70
LAREDO         66 64 74 63 77 / 80 70 70 70 70
ALICE          75 67 76 64 78 / 80 70 70 70 70
ROCKPORT       75 69 76 66 77 / 80 60 70 70 70
COTULLA        65 62 74 62 76 / 70 70 80 70 70

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SCA GMZ250-255-270-275.

&&

80/MB...SHORT-TERM
91/JD...LONG-TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
506 AM CST MON NOV 15 2004

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-161200-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
ARANSAS-BEE-CALHOUN-DUVAL-GOLIAD-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-LA SALLE-LIVE OAK-
MCMULLEN-NUECES-REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-VICTORIA-WEBB-
506 AM CST MON NOV 15 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TODAY AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS.  SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAINFALL WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS...HIGHWAY UNDERPASSES AND OTHER LOW
SPOTS.

MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COASTLINE.  NO
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY.  FLOODING OF SOME LOW-LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND PRODUCE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MB/JD