Flash Flood Warning 95, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
315 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2004

.SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...COLD FRONT IS ON THE MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX AND APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. BASED ON THE DISTANCE SPEED TOOL...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG THE COAST AROUND 12Z. TSRAS ARE MOSTLY AHD AND ALONG THE
FRONT WITH ISOL TSRAS BEHIND THE FRONT. BOTH THE ETA AND GFS SHOW
BEST DYNAMICS...HIGHEST PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT WITH BRIEF RESIDUAL
PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MID MORNING THEN RAPIDLY CLEARING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS...FEEL THIS
SCENARIO IS REASONABLE AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE
COAST THIS MORNING...DECREASING FROM NW TO SE BY NOON. GIVEN THE
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT...AM STILL EXPECTING STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. GUSTS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MAY APPROACH GALE
FORCE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO REACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER LAND AREAS...ALTHOUGH INITIAL WIND GUSTS
BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BRIEFLY RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS. TODAYS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE TRICKY AS THIS IS THE FIRST STRONG COLD
FRONT OF THE SEASON. CURRENT FORECASTED HIGHS ARE BELOW GUIDANCE
VALUES. AM GOING TO CONTINUE WITH THE LOWER VALUES DUE TO EXPECTED
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THROUGH NOON AND MODERATE TO STRONG CAA. THESE
HIGHS ARE ACTUALLY ONLY A FEW DEGREES OFF FROM CURRENT READINGS.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WEST AS THE
HIGH AXIS SETTLES ACROSS MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION.
THE LIGHT WEST WINDS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEWPTS WILL
PROMOTE OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. FEEL MOS IS TOO WARM WITH
TONIGHTS MIN TEMPS...THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS
FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG-TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BY FRIDAY THE DRY AIR WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND THE UPPER TROF WILL QUICKLY MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST.  H85 TEMPS WILL REBOUND RATHER QUICKLY AS WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS RUNNING JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE CWA.  DO NOT EXPECT TOO MANY CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AS RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.  OVER THE WEEKEND
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND INCREASE AS
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.  THIS WILL HELP
INCREASE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK
TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.  THIS LEE TROFFING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY AS H25 SPEED MAX AND VORTICITY CENTER MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA.  GFS IS SHOWING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEE LOW KICKING OUT TO THE
EAST...BUT STILL DOES NOT SHOW MUCH SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION.  BY THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK...H5-H25 FLOW IS FAIRLY ZONAL WITH SOME WEAK
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...BUT GFS AND CANADIAN ARE BOTH IN
AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROF DIGGING INTO THE
WEST.  THIS TROF WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR NORTH
AND WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE.  WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
THE WATERS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE
LAND AREAS AND MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW CREATES LOCAL CONVERGENCE.  00Z
RUN OF THE CANADIAN MODEL SHOWS FROPA THROUGH CWA ON THURSDAY WITH
FAIRLY LOW THICKNESS VALUES OVER TEXAS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...GFS
BRINGS FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS BUT NEVER MAKES IN TO OUR AREA AS
UPPER-TROF LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.  WILL SHOW WINDS REMAINING
FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AS DYNAMICAL LIFT WILL
INCREASE.  WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT BY THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
SCEC CRITERIA IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE TROFFING TO THE NORTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

CORPUS CHRISTI  73 55 84 64 87 / 70 00 00 00 00
VICTORIA        70 48 83 60 86 / 60 00 00 00 00
LAREDO          75 55 88 65 91 / 50 00 00 00 00
ALICE           74 50 86 62 89 / 50 00 00 00 00
ROCKPORT        72 59 84 66 86 / 70 00 00 00 00
COTULLA         74 49 86 58 88 / 50 00 00 00 00

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SCA GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275.

&&

81/TE...SHORT-TERM
94/MJ...LONG-TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
345 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2004

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-141100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
ARANSAS-BEE-CALHOUN-DUVAL-GOLIAD-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-LA SALLE-LIVE OAK-
MCMULLEN-NUECES-REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-VICTORIA-WEBB-
345 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...AHEAD AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. HAIL MAY OCCUR IN THE STRONGER STORMS ON BOTH SIDES OF
THE FRONT TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HEAVY RAINFALL IS A
POSSIBILITY WITH MANY OF THESE STORMS...AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
OR PONDING OF WATER MAY OCCUR. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT.  NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.  WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED
NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH.  GUSTS OF 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND
THE FRONT.  THIS WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS
TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE.  SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW CAUTION LEVEL ON
FRIDAY.  NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AFTER THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

JHV