Flash Flood Warning 94, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
255 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2004

.SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. WILL GO SCT OVER THE INLAND AREAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS THRU
THE EVENING HOURS WITH PRECIP DECREASING OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING. A REPEAT OF TODAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY. PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASE TOWARD MORNING AND
MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS SHOW 2+ INCH PWATS COVERING
MUCH OF S TX ON TUE WITH AN INVERTED TROF DEVELOPING TONIGHT THEN
SHIFTING INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE TUESDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING SFC
FORCING. INVERTED TROF REDEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER THE MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS THE REGION
WILL BE ON SUBSIDENT SIDE OF IVAN. HOWEVER...FEEL THE GFS IS TOO DRY
AND WILL KEEP SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE TUE NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHC
POPS.

MARINE...SWELLS/SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT AS IVAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NRN GULF.
WILL MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL OF COASTAL FLOODING AND LET LATER SHIFT
LOOK AT LATEST MODEL RUNS...BUOYS AND TRENDS TO DETERMINE IF A
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH/WARNING WILL BE WARRANTED FOR TUE OR TUE NIGHT.
FOR TIME BEING...FEEL EFFECTS OF SWELLS WILL BE MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
WITH NO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...UNLESS SWELLS
ARE HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED. WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
FOR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW AND RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.LONG-TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...STILL APPEARS THE WEAKNESS
IN THE MID-UPR RIDGE WILL ALLOW HURRICANE IVAN TO BEGIN TO MOVE ON A
MORE NRLY TRACK AFTER IT MOVES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE
SRN GOMEX WITH A LANDFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE NRN GULF BETWEEN SE LA
AND THE FL PANHANDLE WED NIGHT OR EARLY THU. EXPECT WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW EARLY WED W/ THE SEA BREEZE TURNING WINDS ERLY BY AFTERNOON. A
LITTLE MORE INFLUENCE OF THE CIRCULATION AROUND IVAN BY THU WILL
PROVIDE A LITTLE STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW INITIALLY EARLY BUT STILL
THINK THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD TURN THE FLOW NE-ERLY IN THE AFTN THU.
CIRCULATION AROUND IVAN WILL PROVIDE SOME CONTINENTAL DRYING ACROSS
THE REGION WED AND THU BUT THINK THE GFS IS TOO AGGRESSIVE AND WILL
LEAN TOWARD A GFS/ETA COMPROMISE WRT MOISTURE FIELDS FOR NOW. THAT
MEANS THERE STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLD POPS ACROSS
THE REGION ON WED WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHC ACROSS THE WRN COASTAL
BEND (WEST OF HIGHWAY 77 TO NEAR ALI). THINK DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE
ON THE WRN EDGE OF IVAN WILL PRECLUDE POPS BY THU AND WILL LEAN EVEN
MORE TOWARD WARMER (MAV) HIGH TEMPS DUE TO THE DRYING AND OFFSHORE
FLOW. GFS DOES INDICATE IVAN WILL LATCH ONTO A WEAK FRONT AND TRY TO
PULL IT SOUTH TO THE COAST LATE THU...BUT NOT SEEING MUCH COOLING
WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND THINK COMBINATION OF DRY AIR...LIGHT WINDS
(SOMEWHAT OFFSHORE AT TIMES AT FIRST THEN TURNING WEAKLY ONSHORE
OVER THE WEEKEND) AND WEAK MID LVL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION WILL LIKELY PROMOTE HIGH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

CORPUS CHRISTI  74 91 75 94 76 / 20 50 20 20 05
VICTORIA        73 91 73 95 72 / 30 50 30 10 10
LAREDO          76 96 76 99 77 / 30 40 30 20 20
ALICE           72 93 74 95 74 / 30 50 30 20 10
ROCKPORT        76 90 76 92 78 / 20 50 20 20 05
COTULLA         72 95 73 97 74 / 30 40 30 10 10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

81/TE...SHORT-TERM
MJG...LONG-TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
600 AM CDT MON SEP 13 2004

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-132100-
ARANSAS-BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-BEE-CALHOUN-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
DUVAL-GOLIAD-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-LASALLE-LIVE OAK-MCMULLEN-NUECES-
REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-VICTORIA-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-WEBB-
600 AM CDT MON SEP 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT OVER ALL LOCATIONS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. AN INCREASE IN
SWELLS IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS IVAN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
WITH EXPECTED LANDFALL NOW FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE ALABAMA AND
FLORIDA COASTLINE. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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