Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

000 
WGUS54 KCRP 210700
FFWCRP
TXC469-210900-
/X.NEW.KCRP.FF.W.0009.041121T0657Z-041121T0900Z/
/0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1257 AM CST SUN NOV 21 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN VICTORIA COUNTY IN TEXAS

* UNTIL 300 AM CST

* AT 1250 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  THAT MOST OF THE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.  
  HOWEVER...AN ADDITIONAL 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE
  MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VICTORIA COUNTY.  ALSO...THERE IS STILL 
  FLOODING CONTINUING OVER THE AREA.  IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR 
  THE WATERS TO RECEDE. 

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 2885 9723 2888 9723 2885 9727 2889 9728
      2910 9698 2905 9691 2903 9684 2894 9680
      2885 9673 2879 9672 2865 9716 2879 9716
      2883 9718

$$

GW

SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
955 AM CDT SUN APR 4 2004

.UPDATE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE LIFTED AND WL UPDATE ZONES TO RMV
MORN FOG. VCT SLOWEST TO IMPROVE BUT AM EXPECTING VSBY/CIGS TO
BECOME AT LEAST MVFR BY 11 AM. CRP 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. DRT SOUNDING SHOWED STRONG SHEAR WHILE CRPS IS MUCH
WEAKER. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND MODELS PROG PWATS TO
INCREASE FURTHER BY 18Z. A FEW SHOWERS DVLPD OVR THE MID CWA PER
VSBY SAT AND LIGHTNING DET BUT SURROUNDING RADARS TENDING TO OVER
SHOOT. CRP RADAR IS DOWN UNTIL AT LEAST THIS EVENING. MODELS AGREE
WITH PRECIP TODAY...BUT DISAGREE WITH QPF VALUES AND PLACEMENT TO AN
EXTENT. GFS IS THE WETTER MODEL WITH RAPID INCREASE IN QPF BY 18Z
WHICH SHIFTS NE THRU THE DAY. ETA ALSO SHIFTS PRECIP NE BUT TO
LESSER EXTENT. RUC ALSO INDICATES PRECIP TO SHIFT NE ACRS THE CWA
WITH REDVLPMNT TO THE WEST. WILL INCREASE POPS BY 10 PERCENT ACRS
THE AREA WITH 70 PERCENT W TO 40 PERCENT NE GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE
IN DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE. FCSTD WIND AND TEMPS
LOOK REASONABLE FOR NOW.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN OVER AZ AND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY ADVANCE EAST ON MONDAY.
CURRENTLY AN ELONGATED SHEAR AXIS EXISTS JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
IN DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.  THIS NEXT SPOKE OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE EAST INTO THE CWA TODAY AND WILL GRADE POPS HIGHEST WEST AND
LOWEST NORTHEAST WHERE LOWER THETA-E AIR WILL RESIDE.  BELIEVE WE
WILL SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION FORMED DURING HEATING TODAY BUT NOT
TOO CONFIDENT ON HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TODAY.  HOWEVER BY TONIGHT
THAT MAY CHANGE AND DAY SHIFT MAY CONTEMPLATE A FLOOD WATCH.
BELIEVE THAT 30KT LOW LEVEL JET IN CONJUNCTION WITH AXIS OF
INSTABILITY OVER THE CWA MAY PRODUCE TRAINING ECHOS OR ALLOW FOR
UPWIND PROPAGATION OF AN MCS MOVING SE FROM STORMS ORIGINATING
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE.  WILL MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
WEST/CENTRAL ZONES AND PAINT LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS.  WEAK
INSTABILITY WITH CAPES ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG WILL LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT DESPITE SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.  IF WE DO
GET MORE HEATING THAN EXPECTED TODAY...SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS EVENING.  WILL BROAD BRUSH
50 PPOS OVER THE AREA MONDAY AS REGION STILL REMAINS IN THE UPPER
DIFLUENT FLOW.  SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD FOR ROTATING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
HIGHEST.  SPC HAS THIS AREA IN SLIGHT RISK AND LATER SHIFTS WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.  SCEC EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG-TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...LOOKS LIKE RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGS DRIER AIR TO SOUTH TEXAS.  WILL
KEEP CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY RESPECTIVELY...WITH
LIKELY POPS OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  THINGS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY WEDNESDAY AND MOST OF THURSDAY.  GFS IS BRINGING
ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THURSDAY EVENING...MUCH EARLIER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO.  SEEMS UKMET AND CANADIAN ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH GFS SO WILL
GO WITH THIS SCENARIO (ALSO...MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOW/HAVING HARD TIME
KEEPING UP WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC CHANGES THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS).
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...THEN DRY SATURDAY.  LOWERED TEMPS A BIT AFTER FROPA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERIWSE NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE
IN PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 65 78 67 83 / 50 70 50 50 60
VICTORIA       79 62 77 63 80 / 30 60 50 50 70
LAREDO         79 66 78 67 86 / 60 70 50 60 40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

UPDATE
81/TE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
92/TR...SHORT TERM
86/GW...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
137 PM CDT SUN APR 4 2004

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-051100-
ARANSAS-BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-BEE-CALHOUN-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
DUVAL-GOLIAD-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-LASALLE-LIVE OAK-MCMULLEN-NUECES-
REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-VICTORIA-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-WEBB-
137 PM CDT SUN APR 4 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
LOCATED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE AT TIMES.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE FROM LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
UP TO 60 MPH.  MOST OF THE SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO LAST
BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND AROUND 800 PM TONIGHT.  HEAVY RAINFALL
BETWEEN ONE AND THREE INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF FIVE INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.  A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON THAT
WILL INCLUDE MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE AT TIMES WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF SEVERAL INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING
RAINS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL.

MB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1155 AM CDT SUN APR 4 2004

TXZ240-041800-
DUVAL-
1155 AM CDT SUN APR 4 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO DUVAL COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HEBBRONVILLE IS MOVING NORTH AROUND 20
MPH. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT AREAS FROM BRUNI TO REALITOS
THROUGH 1230 PM. THIS THUNDERSTORM MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
40 MPH...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CRP FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

TE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1254 PM CDT SUN APR 4 2004

TXZ240-041900-
DUVAL-
1254 PM CDT SUN APR 4 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN DUVAL COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS FROM EAST OF REALITOS TO
RIOS THROUGH 130 PM. THIS STORM IS MOVING NORTH AROUND 20 MPH. THIS
THUNDERSTORM MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1
INCH PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CRP FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

TE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
117 PM CDT SUN APR 4 2004

TXZ229>232-239>241-050000-
BEE-DUVAL-JIM WELLS-LA SALLE-LIVE OAK-MCMULLEN-WEBB-
117 PM CDT SUN APR 4 2004

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
VALID UNTIL 700 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING. THE WATCH INCLUDES THE
COUNTIES OF BEE...DUVAL...JIM WELLS...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN
AND WEBB. SOME CITIES INCLUDED IN THE WATCH ARE ALICE...BEEVILLE...
BENAVIDES...COTULLA...ENCINAL...GEORGE WEST...LAREDO...SKIDMORE...
THREE RIVERS AND TILDEN.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND THIS
AFTERNOON.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL OR STRONG
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY IF THREATENING
WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA. IF SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS YOUR
AREA...THEN MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM AND LAY DOWN ON THE FLOOR. IF
CAUGHT OUTSIDE...LAY FLAT DOWN ON THE GROUND...PREFERABLY IN A DITCH
OR OTHER LOW SPOT. NEVER TRY TO OUTRUN SEVERE WEATHER.

MB