Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

000 
WGUS74 KCRP 081527
FFSCRP
TXC007-057-391-081830-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1023 AM CDT SAT MAY 8 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CALHOUN COUNTY 
UNTIL 1245 PM...

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARANSAS COUNTY 
UNTIL 100 PM...

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR REFUGIO COUNTY 
UNTIL 115 PM...

AT 1021 AM CDT...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUED OVER ARANSAS...CALHOUN AND 
PORTIONS OF REFUGIO COUNTY.  LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED 
WATER OVER THE ROADWAY SOUTH OF WOODSBORO AT 1015 AM.  
ALSO...BARRICADED ROADWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF ARANSAS 
AND CALHOUN COUNTIES...ACCORDING TO LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS. 

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
PORT LAVACA...PORT OCONNOR...REFUGIO...ROCKPORT AND SEADRIFT.

MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
BRIDGES...DIPS...OR OTHER LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.
NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO
ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 2833 9639 2821 9664 2792 9700 2807 9697
          2790 9713 2812 9728 2816 9753 2833 9740
          2855 9713 2848 9692 2861 9692 2865 9664
          2859 9650 2867 9628

$$

GW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
852 AM CDT SAT MAY 8 2004

.UPDATED...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA ATTM.  UPPER LOW IS
MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH TWO LOBES NOTICED ON VAPOR LOOP.  ONE
LOBE IS NORTH OF CWFA AND ONE IS OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  HAVE
INCREASED POPS OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA AND MENTIONED
HEAVY RAINFALL.  AT THIS TIME...NO FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED BUT
WILL BE MONITORED.  NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW. 86/GW

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
.SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE ETA/GFS WITH
RESPECT TO THE SLOW EWD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS DRG THE
PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK MID/UPPER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE (EAST
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS) AND SFC FORCING (ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SFC TROUGH) WL RESULT IN A GREATER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVR THE ERN
CWFA TDA. EXPECT INCREASING MID/UPPER Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE
TO PRECLUDE ACTIVITY OVR THE CWFA BY SUN AFTN...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WL
REMAIN PSBL OFFSHORE. DO NOT EXPECT SEA CONDITIONS TO EXCEED SCEC.

.LONG-TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...500HPA TROUGH AXIS
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE/FORCING SUPPORTING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE SUFFICIENTLY MOIST/UNSTABLE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. FORCING FOR
CONVECTION WILL COME VIA ADDITIONAL VORTICITY MAXIMA TRACKING ACROSS
THE REGION AND THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. WILL USE CHANCE POPS WITH
THE EMPHASIS ON MONDAY NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE
PRESENCE OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITH THE
NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE WATERS ONLY ATTAINING SCEC CRITERIA. NO RADICAL
DEPARTURES FROM MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN THE FIRST THREE PERIODS
WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LOWER 1000-850HPA THICKNESS AND
850HPA TEMPERATURES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE
FLOW WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT MAXIMUM OCCURRING TUESDAY PER MODEL
CONSENSUS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY/FORCING ARE
RESPECTABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
PROVIDING ASCENSION ENHANCEMENT TUESDAY. THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN
ITS ATTEMPT TO BRING A SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH ON FRIDAY. ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS AND THE ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ARE FAVORED IN KEEPING THE
BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MAINTAINS A SOUTHERLY
FLOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS JUNCTURE FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT INDICATE CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AND THERMAL/PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY AS THE 1000-850HPA THICKNESS CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 70 82 70 79 / 40 20 00 10 30
VICTORIA       80 68 83 68 82 / 50 30 10 20 30
LAREDO         84 69 87 70 89 / 20 20 00 05 30
ALICE          80 67 86 68 84 / 30 20 00 05 30
ROCKPORT       78 71 81 72 81 / 50 20 10 20 30
COTULLA        82 66 85 68 85 / 30 20 00 05 30

87/SHORT-TERM
85/LONG-TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
600 AM CDT SAT MAY 8 2004

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-091100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
ARANSAS-BEE-CALHOUN-DUVAL-GOLIAD-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-LA SALLE-LIVE OAK-
MCMULLEN-NUECES-REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-VICTORIA-WEBB-
600 AM CDT SAT MAY 8 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER THE COASTAL BEND...VICTORIA CROSSROADS...RIO
GRANDE PLAINS...AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
COASTAL BEND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PERIODIC UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK FOR WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND
25 KNOTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

WC/BB