Special Marine Warning 21, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
330 PM EDT TUE MAY 11 2004

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THIS EVG WOULD XPC TSTMS ACRS CNTRL AND WRN OH TO MOV NORTH INTO
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.  ATTM NOT OUTLOOKED BY SPC.  MSAS LIS AT
18Z RUNNING FROM -3 TO -5 IN THE AREA WITH MORE UNSTBL CONDS SE AND
WEST OF THE AREA.  COULD BE AN ISOLATED EVENT BUT DO NOT EXPECT TOO
MUCH PROB THIS EVG.  WILL CARRY TSTMS INTO THE EVENING EVERYWHERE
BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHC WILL BE WRN HALF OF THE AREA.  TNGT WARM
FRONT NOW IN THE VCNTY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA AND REMAIN OUT OF
THE PICTURE.  WED WILL START OUT WITH A DRY FCST WITHOUT ANY
FOCUSING MECH BUT BY AFTN...HEATING WILL BRING LIS DOWN TO -4 TO -6
RANGE AND FCST CAPE TO 800-1200J/KG.  BUFKIT SHOWS NO CAP BY
AFTERNOON SO THIS WARRENTS A CHC.  BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL GO
WITH PC SKIES DESPITE THE MSTR PROGS.  WILL KEEP THIS SAME THEME
RUNNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS WELL WITH CHC POPS DURING
THE AFTN AND EVG AND GNRLY PC SKIES. ETA BRINGS A CDFNT INTO NWRN OH
ON FRIDAY AFTN WHILE AVN HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.  GVN
INSTBY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WOULD XPC TSTMS BOTH AHEAD OF AND ALONG
THE FRONT.  WILL GO AHEAD AND PLACE LKLY POPS IN THE NW FOR THE AFTN
FRIDAY.  DEPENDING ON THE MDL...THIS COULD BE A BIT FAST BUT THEY
SHOULD BE CLOSE AND WL HOLD CNTRL AND ERN ZONES TO A CHC.  FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING LKLY ACRS THE CWA WITH FROPA.  SAT STARTS OUT MOIST
BUT BY SAT NIGHT...SFC HIGH TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW
AS FRONT STALLS/DSIPTS TO OUR SE.  MSTR NOT FAR AWAY BUT WILL GO
WITH AREA DRYG FROM THE NW AS HINTED BY THE AVN BY SAT NIGHT. MRF A
CONTS TREND INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
540 AM EDT TUE MAY 11 2004

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-111200-
ASHLAND OH-ASHTABULA INLAND OH-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE OH-CRAWFORD PA-
CRAWFORD OH-CUYAHOGA OH-ERIE OH-GEAUGA OH-HANCOCK OH-HOLMES OH-
HURON OH-KNOX OH-LAKE OH-LORAIN OH-LUCAS OH-MAHONING OH-MARION OH-
MEDINA OH-MORROW OH-NORTHERN ERIE PA-OTTAWA OH-PORTAGE OH-
RICHLAND OH-SANDUSKY OH-SENECA OH-SOUTHERN ERIE PA-STARK OH-
SUMMIT OH-TRUMBULL OH-WAYNE OH-WOOD OH-WYANDOT OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AKRON...ASHLAND...ASHTABULA...
BOWLING GREEN...BUCYRUS...CANTON...CHARDON...CLEVELAND...ELYRIA...
ERIE...FINDLAY...FOSTORIA...FREMONT...JEFFERSON...LORAIN...
MANSFIELD...MARION...MEADVILLE...MEDINA...MILLERSBURG...
MOUNT GILEAD...MOUNT VERNON...NORWALK...PAINESVILLE...PORT CLINTON...
RAVENNA...SANDUSKY...TIFFIN...TOLEDO...UPPER SANDUSKY...WARREN...
WOOSTER AND YOUNGSTOWN
540 AM EDT TUE MAY 11 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTION OF NORTHERN OHIO AND A
PORTION OF NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN OHIO LATER TODAY...HOWEVER NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.