Severe Thunderstorm Warning 240, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO
255 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU SUN)

SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WL CONT
TO BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.  THE MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE WARNING
AREA. SEVERAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS HAVE GENERATED IN ADVANCE
OF THIS FRONT AND MAYBE HAVING AN IMPACT ON THE MODELS.  BOTH THE
GFS AND ETA DO NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
SUNDAY.  THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM...HAVING THE FRONT CLEAR
THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z MON.  THE ETA KEEPS THE FRONT LONGER CLEARING
THE AREA 06Z-12Z MON.  WHILE SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A SURE BET FOR PCPN
THE PERIODS IN BETWEEN ARE QUESTIONABLE.  THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY
UNSTABLE AS LIS ARE -6 TO -7.  THE PROBLEM IS A KICKER TO INITIATE
THE PCPN.  THE MODELS INDICATE SEVERAL SMALL WAVES TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY BUT THESE WAVES MAY NOT BE REALISTIC.  AN EXISTING BOUNDARY
FROM THE CONVECTION LAST NIGHT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ATM.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  MOST
LIKELY...THE POPS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED BUT IF THE PCPN BECOMES TO
WIDESPREAD WE MAY HAVE TO ISSUE LIKELY POPS.  I WL KEEP HIGH CHC
POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NGT.  THE HIGHER POPS WL BE TO THE WEST CLOSER
TO THE FRONT.  I AM STILL NOT SURE OF A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THE
PCPN ON SAT AND GUIDANCE POPS SEEM REALLY HIGH.  I ALSO BELIEVE THE
TEMPS ON SAT WL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.  THE MODEL 850 MB TEMPS SHOW
SOME COOLING BUT I THINK THIS IS UNREALISTIC.  WITH SCATTERED PCPN ON
SAT I EXPECT TEMPS TO BE NEAR MID 80S NOT UPPER 70S AS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOW THAT MOST OF THE AREA IS IN FOR A
FAIRLY DRY PERIOD THROUGH THE EXTENDED.  SOME PCPN MAY LINGER
SUN NGT AND EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST BUT A
LARGE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.  THE GFS SHOWS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE WARNING AREA TUESDAY
DAY/NIGHT.  HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY DRY AND PCPN IS NOT
LIKELY.  THE MODELS DO NOT HINT AT ANY OTHER SYSTEMS UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT.  TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
TSTMS DVLPG ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVR NW OHIO ACTIVITY SHOULD DCR AS
IT MOVS E INTO ERN OHIO...AS BEST CONVG IS NW OH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...KOSARIK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
638 AM EDT FRI AUG 27 2004

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-281036-
ASHLAND OH-ASHTABULA INLAND OH-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE OH-CRAWFORD PA-
CRAWFORD OH-CUYAHOGA OH-ERIE OH-GEAUGA OH-HANCOCK OH-HOLMES OH-
HURON OH-KNOX OH-LAKE OH-LORAIN OH-LUCAS OH-MAHONING OH-MARION OH-
MEDINA OH-MORROW OH-NORTHERN ERIE PA-OTTAWA OH-PORTAGE OH-
RICHLAND OH-SANDUSKY OH-SENECA OH-SOUTHERN ERIE PA-STARK OH-
SUMMIT OH-TRUMBULL OH-WAYNE OH-WOOD OH-WYANDOT OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AKRON...ASHLAND...ASHTABULA...
BOWLING GREEN...BUCYRUS...CANTON...CHARDON...CLEVELAND...ELYRIA...
ERIE...FINDLAY...FOSTORIA...FREMONT...JEFFERSON...LORAIN...
MANSFIELD...MARION...MEADVILLE...MEDINA...MILLERSBURG...
MOUNT GILEAD...MOUNT VERNON...NORWALK...PAINESVILLE...PORT CLINTON...
RAVENNA...SANDUSKY...TIFFIN...TOLEDO...UPPER SANDUSKY...WARREN...
WOOSTER AND YOUNGSTOWN
638 AM EDT FRI AUG 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OHIO AND A
PORTION OF NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
ISOLATED STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE MOIST AND COULD BECOME UNSTABLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS DAY TIME HEATING OCCURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND BECOME
STATIONARY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEYOND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

LOMBARDY

OHZ003-006>009-017>019-271845-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
138 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2004

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN OHIO FROM NEAR MAUMEE BAY
TO TOLEDO TO VAN WERT WERE BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

THESE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND
DOWNPOURS HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LAND AREAS.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES...TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

OHZ006>009-017>019-027-272000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
258 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2004

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED FROM WESTERN LAKE ERIE TO
SOUTHWEST OF BOWLING GREEN IN WOOD COUNTY.

THESE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND
DOWNPOURS HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LAND AREAS.

THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WERE LOCATED OVER WOOD COUNTY
NEAR BOWLING GREEN. THESE STORMS WERE ALSO HEADED TOWARDS
HANCOCK COUNTY.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES...TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
307 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0146 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SYLVANIA                41.71N 83.71W
08/27/2004                   LUCAS              OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TWO TO THREE LARGE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN ON WIRES.

&&

FMK