Severe Thunderstorm Warning 177, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
311 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

.DISCUSSION...
BOW ECHO IS RACING RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
LINE IS INTENSIFYING AND INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH TIME.
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE BOW ECHO WILL SUSTAIN ACTIVITY AS
IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE AROUND ONE INCH WITH THE
LINE WHICH HELPS WITH FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA.

AFTER LINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...WILL KEEP MENTION
OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST.  WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE BOW ECHO FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. NVA BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TO BEGIN
SETTING UP A PATTERN OF DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AND SHIFT EAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  AIR MASS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM ON
TUESDAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE MIDDLE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WILL
BRING A SHOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.
UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER LAKE ERIE WHILE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY.

AFTER WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...THE WHOLE PACKAGE SHIFTS SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT SETTING UP FOR A DRY DAY ON
FRIDAY.  WILL ALSO KEEP SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW AS NEXT STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.  PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
SATURDAY EVENING.  SYSTEM WILL MOVE FAIRLY FAST THROUGH THE AREA BUT
WILL CARRY A CHANCE INTO SUNDAY FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

CONSENSUS IS THAT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH NORTH IN
CANADA THAT WE CAN LEAVE MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

EXPECTING A BIT OF A COOL DOWN AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST
AREA PUMPING COOL AIR MASS INTO THE AREA.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 70S WITH A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR LUCAS...WOOD...HANCOCK...OTTAWA...
SANDUSKY...SENECA...WYANDOT...ERIE...HURON...ASHLAND...MARION...
MORROW...CRAWFORD...LORAIN...CUYAHOGA...MEDINA...ASHLAND...
RICHLAND...KNOX...HOLMES...WAYNE...STARK...AND SUMMIT UNTIL 1 AM
TUESDAY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ALL OF NORTHERN OHIO UNTIL 6 PM.
PA...NONE.

&&

LOMBARDY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
718 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-141417-
ASHLAND OH-ASHTABULA INLAND OH-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE OH-CRAWFORD PA-
CRAWFORD OH-CUYAHOGA OH-ERIE OH-GEAUGA OH-HANCOCK OH-HOLMES OH-
HURON OH-KNOX OH-LAKE OH-LORAIN OH-LUCAS OH-MAHONING OH-MARION OH-
MEDINA OH-MORROW OH-NORTHERN ERIE PA-OTTAWA OH-PORTAGE OH-
RICHLAND OH-SANDUSKY OH-SENECA OH-SOUTHERN ERIE PA-STARK OH-
SUMMIT OH-TRUMBULL OH-WAYNE OH-WOOD OH-WYANDOT OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AKRON...ASHLAND...ASHTABULA...
BOWLING GREEN...BUCYRUS...CANTON...CHARDON...CLEVELAND...ELYRIA...
ERIE...FINDLAY...FOSTORIA...FREMONT...JEFFERSON...LORAIN...
MANSFIELD...MARION...MEADVILLE...MEDINA...MILLERSBURG...
MOUNT GILEAD...MOUNT VERNON...NORWALK...PAINESVILLE...PORT CLINTON...
RAVENNA...SANDUSKY...TIFFIN...TOLEDO...UPPER SANDUSKY...WARREN...
WOOSTER AND YOUNGSTOWN
718 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTION OF NORTHERN OHIO AND A
PORTION OF NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR IS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT.  ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
113 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

OHZ003-006>008-017-018-027-028-141906-
CRAWFORD OH-HANCOCK OH-LUCAS OH-OTTAWA OH-SANDUSKY OH-SENECA OH-
WOOD OH-WYANDOT OH-
113 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM...
...FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM...

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN INDIANA AT 50 MILES AN HOUR.  WITH THIS CURRENT MOVEMENT
THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL ENTER NORTHWEST OHIO AROUND 2 PM AND INTO
THE TOLEDO...BOWLING GREEN AND FINDALY METRO AREAS BY 3 PM.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN.  A FLOOD WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN AN INCH AN HOUR COULD BEGIN TO
PRODUCE FLOODING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
409 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S BOWLING GREEN       41.38N 83.65W
06/14/2004                   WOOD               OH   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE TREES DOWN SOUTH OF CITY. ONE LARGE TREE FELL
            THROUGH A TRAILER HOME.

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SYLVANIA                41.71N 83.71W
06/14/2004                   LUCAS              OH   AMATEUR RADIO

            NUMEROUS LARGE TREES DOWN AND POWER OUTAGES COUNTY WIDE.

&&

GTG