Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
715 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE REST OF CWA IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 463
UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS GRADUALLY THINNING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER 80S. A LINE OF
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA MOVING EAST NORTHEAST WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST OHIO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY
AND SOUTHERN INDIANA TRIES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA AS
WELL. DTX SOUNDING SHOWS A FAIRLY STRONG CAP OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND IS POSSIBLY THE REASON ACTIVITY OVER INDIANA HAS BEEN
SLOW TO DEVELOP.

FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WITH A MODERATE
RISK JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO BORDER IN MICHIGAN. MORNING SOUNDING
FROM DTX INDICATES A VEERING PROFILE ALONG WITH SPEED SHEAR AND WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA.

LATEST RUC INDICATES A -2 LI OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
BUT COULD DROP EVEN FURTHER WITH THE INCREASING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.  DEW POINTS ARE WELL INTO THE UPPER 60S MOST AREAS
WITH SOME LOWER 70S IN THE EXTREME WEST. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
STARTING TO PICK UP IN INTENSITY OVER INDIANA AS CAP IS STARTING TO
BREAK.  ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INDIANA HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE AS THEY MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST OHIO.

I DECIDED TO GO WITH LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
DUE TO THE ACTIVITY HEADED TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.  IT APPEARS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUIET DOWN LATE THIS EVENING AS
MOISTURE AND PVA MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.  SO I WILL DROP MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TOMORROW WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE ACROSS THE AREA.  GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES GOING WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA FOR
HIGHS BUT WILL SHADE BACK A LITTLE BIT TO AT LEAST MIDDLE 80S IN THE
WEST AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S EAST.

VIGOROUS VORT MAX WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT AFFECTS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS
MONDAY.  WILL TAKE THE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND MENTION A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. CONCERN IS TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IF IT DECIDES TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
AREA IS OUTLOOKED FOR SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

ONCE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING...AT LEAST ONE DAY OF DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

EXPECTING ANOTHER SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY DIVE DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

ONCE WEATHER SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
FOR MORE DRY WEATHER UNTIL YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THEN EXITING SLOWLY BY SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES.  SEE NO STRONG NEED TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM GUIDANCE AT
THIS POINT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT FOR
LUCAS...WOOD...HANCOCK...SANDUSKY...SENECA...WYANDOT...OTTAWA...
AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES.
PA...NONE.

&&

DJB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
633 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-131232-
ASHLAND OH-ASHTABULA INLAND OH-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE OH-CRAWFORD PA-
CRAWFORD OH-CUYAHOGA OH-ERIE OH-GEAUGA OH-HANCOCK OH-HOLMES OH-
HURON OH-KNOX OH-LAKE OH-LORAIN OH-LUCAS OH-MAHONING OH-MARION OH-
MEDINA OH-MORROW OH-NORTHERN ERIE PA-OTTAWA OH-PORTAGE OH-
RICHLAND OH-SANDUSKY OH-SENECA OH-SOUTHERN ERIE PA-STARK OH-
SUMMIT OH-TRUMBULL OH-WAYNE OH-WOOD OH-WYANDOT OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AKRON...ASHLAND...ASHTABULA...
BOWLING GREEN...BUCYRUS...CANTON...CHARDON...CLEVELAND...ELYRIA...
ERIE...FINDLAY...FOSTORIA...FREMONT...JEFFERSON...LORAIN...
MANSFIELD...MARION...MEADVILLE...MEDINA...MILLERSBURG...
MOUNT GILEAD...MOUNT VERNON...NORWALK...PAINESVILLE...PORT CLINTON...
RAVENNA...SANDUSKY...TIFFIN...TOLEDO...UPPER SANDUSKY...WARREN...
WOOSTER AND YOUNGSTOWN
633 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTION OF NORTHERN OHIO AND A
PORTION OF NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.