Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Caribou, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU MAINE
415 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2004

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT ALIGNED THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL CROSS THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST DURING SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT)...
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOCUSING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT.

FOR THE SPECIFICS...CURRENT KCBW RADAR IS INDICATING SHOWERS LIFTING
INTO THE WESTERN ZONES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHILE AT THE
SAME TIME A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS RAPIDLY SPREADING
STRATUS/FOG NORTHWARD AS PER LATEST 11.0-3.9 SATELLITE IMAGERY.
EXPECT THE FOG TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE MODELS SUPPORT STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY
DOWNEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL (850MB) THETA-E RIDGE AXIS
WORKS IN CONCERT WITH THE AXIS OF STRONGEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
SUPPORTING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONE WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM AN INCH AND A HALF TO
AROUND 2 INCHES AND K INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 35 TO 40. IN
ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WITH THE RIGHT REAR AND LEFT FRONT
JET COUPLET WILL HELP INITIATE ELEVATED CONVECTION AS PER BUFKIT
SOUNDING DATA WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 500 JOULES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
ENHANCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT EXPECT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BE SLOW MOVING
AND POSSIBLY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS WITHIN THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE INDICATES RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES IN THESE AREAS IN AN HOUR. FOR THE
EVENT (NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS) EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE ZONES...HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE
SURSPISED TO SEE SOME ISOLATED BROOKS AND SMALL STREAMS WITHIN SOME
OF THESE SMALLER BASINS APPROACH BANK-FULL LEVELS.

COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVERS SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE DURING
SATURDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN DURING SATURDAY.
AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUN THROUGH THU)...
WEDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS SOMEWHAT CONFLUENT DURING THAT TIME.  UPSHOT IS DRY SUMMER WX
WILL BE ON TAP FOR NRN AND DOWNEAST MAINE MON & TUE. HOWEVER...GFS
INDICATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE COULD POSE A
THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS. WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT COULD PUSH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS LATE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE NEW LONGER RANGE MODEL DATA IS
THEN VERY SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER 00Z PACKAGE IN TAKING A CUT OFF
LOW...OVR THE OHIO VLY...AND LIFTG IT SLOWLY NEWD TWD SRN NEW ENGLAND
BY THE END OF THIS FCST CYCLE. AS S/W RIDGING OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW
PASSES BY...THIS WILL ALLOW AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE / FIRST CLDS THEN A
CHANCE OF SHWRS / TO OVERSPREAD OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) WEDNESDAY NITE
AND BEYOND.  WE WILL GRDLY INCREASE POPS ACCORDINGLY LATE IN THIS
EXTENDED PERIOD...AS THE UPR SYS APPROACHES.

STEADY AS SHE GOES IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT...WITH TEMPS CLUSTERED
ARND 80 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...FROM MON THRU WED.
OTHERWISE...WITH MORE CLOUDS AND GREATER PCPN POTENTIAL ON THU...WE
HAVE KNOCKED TEMPS BACK A NOTCH THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS WITH STRATUS AND FOG OVER CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST ZONES
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. ACROSS THE NORTH VFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME MVFR AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODEL WINDS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING
WINDS BELOW 20 KT TODAY AND TONIGHT. PRIMARILY USED ETA12 FOR WINDS
THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN GFS AFTER THAT. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FETCH
WILL BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT TONIGHT PER WNAWAVE GUIDANCE SO WILL ISSUE
SCA FOR SEAS WITH THIS PACKAGE. EXPECT FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MID
MORNING WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND SEAS WILL DROP BELOW 5
FT. WIDESPREAD FOG TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT IMPROVING WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SEAS TONIGHT.

&&

SHORT TERM: FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM: STUREY/FOSTER
AVIATION: CALDERON
MARINE: FOSTER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1135 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2004

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-240835-
CENTRAL PENOBSCOT ME-CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS ME-CENTRAL WASHINGTON ME-
COASTAL HANCOCK ME-COASTAL WASHINGTON ME-INTERIOR HANCOCK ME-
NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK ME-NORTHERN PENOBSCOT ME-NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS ME-
NORTHERN SOMERSET ME-NORTHERN WASHINGTON ME-NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK ME-
SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK ME-SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT ME-SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS ME-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALLAGASH...BANGOR...BAR HARBOR...
BAXTER ST PARK...BLUE HILL...BROWNVILLE JUNCTION...CARIBOU...
CHERRYFIELD...CLAYTON LAKE...DANFORTH...DEBOULLIE MOUNTAIN...
DEXTER...DOVER-FOXCROFT...EAGLE LAKE...EASTPORT...ELLSWORTH...
ESTCOURT STATION...FORT FAIRFIELD...FORT KENT...GREENVILLE...
GUILFORD...HOULTON...HOWLAND...LIMESTONE...LINCOLN...MACHIAS...
MADAWASKA...MILLINOCKET...MOUNT KATAHDIN...NEWPORT...OLD TOWN...
PATTEN...PORTAGE...PRESQUE ISLE...RIPOGENUS...SAINT PAMPHILE...
VAN BUREN AND VANCEBORO
1135 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN AND
EASTERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

DUE TO THE SLOW NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MAINE...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENT. LIGHTER AMOUNTS ON THE
ORDER OF UP TO A HALF INCH CAN BE EXPECTED DOWNEAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE...SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO CALL IN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DURING THIS EVENT.

STUREY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
243 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2004

MEZ002-231945-
AROOSTOOK COUNTY...
250 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2004

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN CARIBOU HAS ISSUED SPECIAL
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN...AROOSTOOK COUNTY...

AT 250 PM EDT...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS...STRETCHING FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF
WOODLAND TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PORTAGE. THE LINE WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED THROUGH 345 PM EDT INCLUDE...
   PORTAGE...            WOODLAND...       STOCKHOLM...
   ROUTE 11 FROM PORTAGE TO EAGLE LAKE...
   ROUTE 161 FROM NEAR STOCKHOLM TO DAIGLE...
   ROUTE 1 BETWEEN GRAND ISLE AND VANBUREN...

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE...
    GUSTY WINDS...UP TO 35 MILES AN HOUR...
    VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE...
    DEADLY CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...UP TO 4 STRIKES PER MINUTE...

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY
MAY BE WASHED OUT.

REPORT WEATHER RELATED DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN CARIBOU.

LAT...LON 4736 6811 4657 6866 4689 6813 4768 6757

COBB