Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Caribou, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU MAINE
245 PM EDT MON JUN 7 2004

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS MAINE ON TUESDAY AND TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NORTH. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH DURING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRYER
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN HIGH
PFRESSURE SYSTEM.

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM: (TONIGHT - THU)
WEAK COLD FRONT TROUGH STILL W OF THE MAINE AT 18Z. MODELS MOVE
FEATURE TO EASTERN MAINE BY 00Z AND THEN FINALLY E OF THE AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS NOW WITH FRONT OVER
EASTERN QUEBEC. WILL CARRY SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE N
AND MENTION A CHANCE FOR THUNDER. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE GONE BY
00Z. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND TROUGH WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO GET
RID OF MARINE LAYER COMPLETELY OVER THE DOWNEAST...SO EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS/FOG TO RETURN. 12Z NWP STILL AGRESSIVELY BUILDING AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US ON TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO
CROSS MAINE USHERING IN A WARM/HUMID AIRMASS BY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE
SOME SHOWERS/THUDNERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FAR N TUE AFTERNOON
WITH WARM FRONT AS A VORT MAX RIDES OVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONALL LIFT. SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO TUE EVE BUT SHOULD END
BY MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS STILL ON SCHEDULE FOR WED.
ETA/GFS SIMILIAR WITH TIMING WITH FROPA OVER THE N 12Z-18Z AND
OVER THE DOWNEAST 18Z-00Z. GFS IS MORE MOIST AND GENERATES
CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL WITH FROPA. ETA SUGGESTS A DRY FROPA. WOULD
BE QUITE UNUSUAL FOR A DRY FROPA THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S SO EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BOTH ETA/GFS CAPES SIMILAR TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 1000-1400J. COULD SEE
SOME SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER DOWNEAST WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILLL WARM WELL INTO THE 80S PRIOR TO FROPA. EXPECT CLEARING AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES WED NIGHT AND THU AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSRUE
BUILDS IN.

USED ADJUSTED ETA TO POPULATE MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE GRIDS. WENT A FEW
DEGREES LOWER FAR N ON TUE AS EXPECT CLOUDS/SHOWERS TO HOLD HIGHS
BELOW 80. WENT A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN ETA OVER THE DOWNEAST
ON THU WITH DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AHEAD ADVANCING SURFACE COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM: (THU NIGHT - MON) CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CENTER
OF HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINE ON SATURDAY AS STEEP UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST. UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION SAT
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE STATE DURING THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
RIDGES BACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. BASICALLY USED ENSEMBLE MOS
FOR TEMPERATURES WITH ADJ GFS FOR WINDS.

MARINE:EXPECT WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. SEAS MAY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT RANGE WED AFTERNOON AS
SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

PRIMARILY USED GFS/ADJ GFS FOR WINDS AND WNAWAVE FOR SEAS FOR THE
EXTENDED MARINE GRIDS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL EXPECT WINDS AND
SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THOROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

AVIATION: AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...
DRIER AIR WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS TO VFR AT NORTHERN TAF SITES
BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z. MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT BUT EXPECT NORTHERN TAF SITES TO REMAIN GENERALLY VFR. IFR
STRATUS TO LIFT TEMPORARILY AT KBGR LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT AFTER
SUNSET...AS LOWER LEVELS COOL...STRATUS WILL REFORM WITH CIGS AND
VSBY LOWERING TO LOW IFR.

.CAR...NONE.

SHORT TERM: GABRIC
LONG TERM: FOSTER
AVIATION: NORTON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
500 AM EDT MON JUN 7 2004

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-080900-
CENTRAL PENOBSCOT ME-CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS ME-CENTRAL WASHINGTON ME-
COASTAL HANCOCK ME-COASTAL WASHINGTON ME-INTERIOR HANCOCK ME-
NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK ME-NORTHERN PENOBSCOT ME-NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS ME-
NORTHERN SOMERSET ME-NORTHERN WASHINGTON ME-NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK ME-
SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK ME-SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT ME-SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS ME-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALLAGASH...BANGOR...BAR HARBOR...
BAXTER ST PARK...BLUE HILL...BROWNVILLE JUNCTION...CARIBOU...
CHERRYFIELD...CLAYTON LAKE...DANFORTH...DEBOULLIE MOUNTAIN...
DEXTER...DOVER-FOXCROFT...EAGLE LAKE...EASTPORT...ELLSWORTH...
ESTCOURT STATION...FORT FAIRFIELD...FORT KENT...GREENVILLE...
GUILFORD...HOULTON...HOWLAND...LIMESTONE...LINCOLN...MACHIAS...
MADAWASKA...MILLINOCKET...MOUNT KATAHDIN...NEWPORT...OLD TOWN...
PATTEN...PORTAGE...PRESQUE ISLE...RIPOGENUS...SAINT PAMPHILE...
VAN BUREN AND VANCEBORO
500 AM EDT MON JUN 7 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM QUEBEC PROVINCE INTO A VERY
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE WILL RESULT
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WINDS. PLEASE REFER TO SPCS DAY THREE CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK / SWODY3 / FOR DETAILED INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FITZSIMMONS

MEZ001-072030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
334 PM EDT MON JUN 7 2004

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN CARIBOU HAS ISSUED SPECIAL
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN...AROOSTOOK COUNTY...

AT 330 PM EDT...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM WITH
GUSTY WINDS 33 MILES NORTHWEST OF MADAWASKA. THE STORM WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED THROUGH 430 PM EDT INCLUDE...
MADAWASKA...FRENCHVILLE AND GRAND ISLE.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE...
    GUSTY WINDS...UP TO 35 MILES AN HOUR...
    DEADLY CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...UP TO 4 STRIKES PER MINUTE...

IF THREATENING SKIES APPROACH YOUR AREA...TAKE COVER IN A SHELTER OR
BUILDING. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAN QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN.

REPORT WEATHER RELATED DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN CARIBOU.

LAT...LON 4764 6943 4713 6819 4743 6794 4794 6910

GABRIC
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MEZ001-002-072300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
601 PM EDT MON JUN 7 2004

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN CARIBOU HAS ISSUED SPECIAL
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN...AROOSTOOK COUNTY...

AT 551 PM EDT...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM WITH
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF DICKEY. THE STORM WAS
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED THROUGH 700 PM EDT INCLUDE...
    DICKEY...             ALLAGASH...
    DEBOULLIE MOUNTAIN...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE...
    HAIL...THE SIZE OF PEAS...
    GUSTY WINDS...UP TO 40 MILES AN HOUR...
    HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH SOME PONDING IN LOW LYING AREAS...

IF THREATENING SKIES APPROACH YOUR AREA...TAKE COVER IN A SHELTER OR
BUILDING. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAN QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN.

REPORT WEATHER RELATED DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN CARIBOU.

LAT...LON 4723 6937 4667 6874 4684 6836 4737 6908

HEWITT
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