Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Caribou, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU MAINE
255 PM EDT SUN AUG 8 2004

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE
EAST ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA PULLS
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR OVER THE REGION. THE LOW WILL LIFT INTO
QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT PULLING SOME SHOWERS THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUE)...
UPDATE: CURRENT RADAR DISPLAYING SHOWERS SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE CANADIAN BORDER. LIGHTNING APPEARS TO HAVE TAPERED OFF. LAST FEW
STRIKES WERE NEAR MT KATAHDIN AND ONE JUST OBSERVED ADJACENT TO
CARIBOU. FOR OVERNIGHT EXPECT ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS. OF MORE
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG DUE TO THE LIGHT RAIN
EXITING THE  REGION. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK. NO
OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND COLD POOLING ALOFT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDER
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND SOME SMALL HAIL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE SHOWERS. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF AROUND
MID EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO SETTLE DOWN. THE UPPER LOW
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING
BUILDS IN. MONDAY MAY BEGIN MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT THE AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME PARTLY SUNNY AND A BIT WARMER. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. WARMER AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS. TEMPS
TUESDAY SHOULD REACH 80 OR ABOVE IN MOST AREAS. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WILL PULL A BAND OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK OCCLUSION. AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL TO OUR
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A HUMID AIRMASS GOING INTO MIDWEAK.
DRY AIR PULLING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD THEN ALLOW PARTIAL
SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
12Z MODELS ARE VERY SIMILIAR IN THE LONGER RANGE PTN, WITH A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINING ITSELF ACRS NRN NEW ENGLAND, UNTIL A
CDFNT CROSSES OUR REGION SUNDAY MRNG. AS A RESULT, WE WILL HAVE TO
RUN POP POTENTIAL DURING THIS CYCLE, UP TO FROPA ERY SUNDAY. THERE
MOST LIKELY WILL BE UP AND DOWN POP CYCLES DURING THIS PERIOD, AND
WEVE KEYED INTO THE WAVE RIDING UP ALNG THE FNT FRIDAY INTO SAT...
FOR HIGHEST POP POTENTIAL (50 PCT). FOLLOWING FROPA, DROPPED ANY
MENTION OF RAIN FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS A RATHER HUMID PERIOD ON TAP AS WELL...
WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR MOS GUIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH UPR LOW AND COLD TROF ALOFT SHIFTING THRU OUR FORECAST AREA
(FA) LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG, POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE
CARDS, IN THE VCNTY OF SHWRS/TSTMS.  AFTER THE DIURNAL CYCLE SETTLES
DOWN IN THE EVNG, WE SHUD TRANSITION TO MNLY VFR, ALTHOUGH WILL NEED
TO MONITOR 2NDRY TROF AXIS ROTATING THRU LATE TNGT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET ON THE WATERS NEXT FEW DAYS. INITIALIZED WINDS WITH ETA12.
USED WNAWAVE BUT DID TRIM BACK SEAS A BIT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

UPDATE: SMF/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM: BLOOMER
LONG TERM/MARINE: STUREY
AVIATION: CALDERON/STUREY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
626 AM EDT SUN AUG 8 2004

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-091025-
CENTRAL PENOBSCOT ME-CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS ME-CENTRAL WASHINGTON ME-
COASTAL HANCOCK ME-COASTAL WASHINGTON ME-INTERIOR HANCOCK ME-
NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK ME-NORTHERN PENOBSCOT ME-NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS ME-
NORTHERN SOMERSET ME-NORTHERN WASHINGTON ME-NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK ME-
SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK ME-SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT ME-SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS ME-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALLAGASH...BANGOR...BAR HARBOR...
BAXTER ST PARK...BLUE HILL...BROWNVILLE JUNCTION...CARIBOU...
CHERRYFIELD...CLAYTON LAKE...DANFORTH...DEBOULLIE MOUNTAIN...
DEXTER...DOVER-FOXCROFT...EAGLE LAKE...EASTPORT...ELLSWORTH...
ESTCOURT STATION...FORT FAIRFIELD...FORT KENT...GREENVILLE...
GUILFORD...HOULTON...HOWLAND...LIMESTONE...LINCOLN...MACHIAS...
MADAWASKA...MILLINOCKET...MOUNT KATAHDIN...NEWPORT...OLD TOWN...
PATTEN...PORTAGE...PRESQUE ISLE...RIPOGENUS...SAINT PAMPHILE...
VAN BUREN AND VANCEBORO
626 AM EDT SUN AUG 8 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SHOWERS WILL BE SLOW MOVING MEANING LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD EXCEED ONE TO TWO INCHES.  IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...SMALL
HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 8 2004

MEZ001-002-081900-
AROOSTOOK COUNTY...
202 PM EDT SUN AUG 8 2004

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN CARIBOU HAS ISSUED SPECIAL
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN...AROOSTOOK COUNTY...

AT 200 PM EDT...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR
WOODLAND. THE STORMS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED THROUGH 300 PM EDT INCLUDE...
    WASHBURN...           WOODLAND...           MAPLETON...
    CARIBOU...            LORING...             PRESQUE ISLE...
    LIMESTONE...          FORT FAIRFIELD...     EASTON...

THE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE...
    HAIL...THE SIZE OF PEAS...
    GUSTY WINDS...UP TO 35 MILES AN HOUR...
    HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH SOME PONDING IN LOW LYING AREAS...
    DEADLY CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...UP TO 4 STRIKES PER MINUTE...

IF THREATENING SKIES APPROACH YOUR AREA...TAKE COVER IN A SHELTER OR
BUILDING. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAN QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN.

REPORT WEATHER RELATED DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN CARIBOU.

LAT...LON 4724 6867 4687 6901 4646 6756 4686 6738

STUREY

NNNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
229 PM EDT SUN AUG 8 2004

MEZ005-006-011-032-081930-
AROOSTOOK...PENOBSCOT AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...
229 PM EDT SUN AUG 8 2004

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN CARIBOU HAS ISSUED SPECIAL
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN...AROOSTOOK...PENOBSCOT AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 225 PM EDT...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY WITH SMALL HAIL...STRETCHING FROM NEAR SMYRNA
MILLS TO NEAR HOWLAND. THE LINE WAS MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED THROUGH 330 PM EDT INCLUDE...
    SMYRNA MILLS...       ISLAND FALLS...       SPRINGFIELD...
    WYTOPITLOCK...        HAYNESVILLE...        HODGDON...
    HOULTON...            DANFORTH...           HOWLAND...

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE...
    HAIL...THE SIZE OF PEAS...
    HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH SOME PONDING IN LOW LYING AREAS...
    DEADLY CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...UP TO 4 STRIKES PER MINUTE...
    WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH...

IF THREATENING SKIES APPROACH YOUR AREA...TAKE COVER IN A SHELTER OR
BUILDING. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAN QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN.

REPORT WEATHER RELATED DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN CARIBOU.

LAT...LON 4631 6869 4524 6871 4538 6776 4625 6785

NORCROSS

NNNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
342 PM EDT SUN AUG 8 2004

MEZ002-082015-
AROOSTOOK COUNTY...
342 PM EDT SUN AUG 8 2004

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN CARIBOU HAS ISSUED SPECIAL
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN...AROOSTOOK COUNTY...

AT 341 PM EDT...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM WITH
SMALL HAIL 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF MASARDIS. THE STORM WAS MOVING EAST
AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED THROUGH 415 PM EDT INCLUDE...
    MASARDIS...           MARS HILL...          BRIDGEWATER...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE...
    HAIL...UP TO HALF AN INCH...
    HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH SOME PONDING IN LOW LYING AREAS...

IF THREATENING SKIES APPROACH YOUR AREA...TAKE COVER IN A SHELTER OR
BUILDING. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAN QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN.

REPORT WEATHER RELATED DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN CARIBOU.

LAT...LON 4668 6839 4650 6845 4635 6777 4659 6768

CALDERON

NNNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
530 PM EDT SUN AUG 8 2004

MEZ004>006-011-031-032-082230-
PENOBSCOT...AROOSTOOK...PISCATAQUIS AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...
530 PM EDT SUN AUG 8 2004

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN CARIBOU HAS ISSUED SPECIAL
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN...PENOBSCOT...AROOSTOOK...
PISCATAQUIS AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 526 PM EDT...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM WITH
SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAIN 8 MILES WEST OF SHIN
POND. THE STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

OTHER THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED IN A BROKEN LINE FROM MT KATADIN TO
BROWNSVILLE JUNCTION. THOSE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED THROUGH 630 PM EDT INCLUDE...
    MILLINOCKET...        EAST MILLINOCKET...   SHIN POND...
    MEDWAY...             LINCOLN...            PATTEN...
    SHERMAN STATION...    SHERMAN...            ISLAND FALLS...

THE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE...
    GUSTY WINDS...UP TO 35 MILES AN HOUR...
    HAIL...UP TO ONE HALF INCH.
    HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH SOME PONDING IN LOW LYING AREAS...
    DEADLY CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...UP TO 4 STRIKES PER MINUTE...

IF THREATENING SKIES APPROACH YOUR AREA...TAKE COVER IN A SHELTER OR
BUILDING. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAN QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN.

REPORT WEATHER RELATED DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN CARIBOU.

LAT...LON 4618 6887 4526 6907 4549 6747 4629 6778

STUREY

NNNN

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