Tornado Warning 32, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1124 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2004

.UPDATE...
WATER VAPOR SHOWING DRY SLOT MOVING NORTHWARD FROM FLORIDA AND
COASTAL GA. AIRMASS STABLE OVER NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST. EXPECT AIRMASS TO
DESTABALIZE EVEN MORE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN. HAVE
NUDGED HOURLY TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES. WILL LEAVE MAXES IN
THE MID AND UPPER 70S FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS HAVE NOT BEEN
IMPRESSIVE SO FAR, BUT ONCE BREAKS IN LOW CLOUDS OCCUR,
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE. WILL LEAVE WIND ADVISORY AND FLOOD WATCH IN
PLACE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE REMNANTS OF JEANNE TODAY. THE
TRACK IS STILL TAKING THE SYSTEM INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND THEN
TURNING IT NE INTO NC BY TUES AM. LOOKS LIKE SEVERAL THINGS WILL BE
COMING TOGETHER BY MIDDAY TODAY AS 850 MB JET WILL BE PLAYING A
MAJOR FACTOR IN THE PRECIP DEVELOPMENT TODAY. PWS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR 2.33 INCHES. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND
AREAS WILL SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF UP TO
6 INCHES DURING THE EVENT. THE EVENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE AROUND 12
HOURS WITH THE TIME FRAME LOOKING RIGHT NOW TO BE FROM AROUND
MIDDAY TODAY TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

ANOTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT. RIGHT NOW
THERE IS A WATCH BOX IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM FOR THE AREA SOUTH OF CAE.
THIS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD TODAY AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES. THE BEST SHEAR ZONE WILL BE IN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW HELICITIES WERE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 335 BY EARLY
THIS MORNING AROUND CAE. COASTAL TROUGH WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE
IN DETERMINING WHERE THE TORNADOES WILL FORM. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST RIGHT NOW AND THIS BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND AND ALLOW MORE MOISTURE TO FEED INTO THE
MIDLANDS BY LATE THIS MORNING. THIS MIGHT ALSO ACT AS SHEAR ZONE
FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE ON TUESDAY
WITH DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGES INDICATE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM HAS ERODED AWAY AND
SO WE DONT EXPECT THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM TO CONTAIN
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR RATHER QUICKLY AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES BY AS DRY AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN HERE BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY LOOKS RATHER PLEASANT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND SUNNY SKIES.

NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED. LOOKS LIKE VERY PLEASANT
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO IFR BY LATE MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE REMNANTS OF
JEANNE. VISIBILITIES VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY BECOMING
IFR IN WIDESPREAD RAIN AFTER MID MORNING. SURFACE WINDS 09025G35KT
TODAY BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH TONIGHT.
&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT.
     WIND ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT.
     WIND ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

SHORT TERM: LM
AVIATION: LM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
535 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2004

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-280913-
AIKEN SC-BAMBERG SC-BARNWELL SC-BURKE GA-CALHOUN SC-CHESTERFIELD SC-
CLARENDON SC-COLUMBIA GA-EDGEFIELD SC-FAIRFIELD SC-KERSHAW SC-
LANCASTER SC-LEE SC-LEXINGTON SC-LINCOLN GA-MCCORMICK SC-MCDUFFIE GA-
NEWBERRY SC-ORANGEBURG SC-RICHLAND SC-RICHMOND GA-SALUDA SC-
SUMTER SC-
535 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...
THE REMNANTS OF JEANNE WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY
PRODUCING A VARIETY OF WEATHER PROBLEMS. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SOME SEVERE WEATHER.
IN ADDITION THE CIRCULATION FROM JEANNE WILL PRODUCE SOME WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH WHICH MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES. FOR MORE DETAILS SEE THE WIND ADVISORY (CAENPWCAE),
THE FLOOD WATCH (CAEFFACAE), AND THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(CAESPSCAE)ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
SOME RIVER FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
FROM RUNOFF.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

RCC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1032 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 AM     TORNADO          3 NW MANNING            33.72N 80.25W
09/27/2004                   CLARENDON          SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TORNADO MOVING NORTHWEST ALONG HIGHWAY 521

&&

CDL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1132 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 AM     TORNADO          4 N MANNING             33.75N 80.22W
09/27/2004                   CLARENDON          SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            *** 4 INJ *** IN CITY OF ALCOLU 2 MOBILE HOMES
            DESTROYED...4 INJURIES TRANSPORTED TO HOSPITAL.

1025 AM     TORNADO          4 N MANNING             33.75N 80.22W
09/27/2004                   CLARENDON          SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            DAMAGE TO ALCOLU HEAD START SCHOOL...MINOR
            INJURIES...UNKNOWN NUMBER.

&&

CDL