Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
801 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004

.UPDATE...
UPDATING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTION OVER CWA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FIRING UP
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CHARLEY IS NOW GONE BUT REMNANTS OF
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN OVER THE CAE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL CONTINUE IN THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ETA SHOWS WEAK SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE OLD FRONT THIS EVENING. CAE 88D IS
PICKING UP SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL. ALTHOUGH ETA
SHOWING MARGINAL INSTABILITY THIS EVENING WITH A 2-3 DEGREE MID
LEVEL CAP...DECIDED TO INCLUDE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL
CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT. IF ENOUGH BREAKS OCCUR...ATMOSPHERE COULD BECOME
UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. SO WILL ALSO
INCLUDE. OLD FRONT REMNANTS ALSO ON SUNDAY AND WILL HAVE ANOTHER
20 PERCENT CHANCE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEAK REMNANTS OF OLD FRONT EXTEND INTO MONDAY BUT DYNAMICS ARE
PRETTY WEAK. A WEAK SHORT WAVE SCRAPES THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
CWA MONDAY. SO DECIDED TO KEEP A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR JUST THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY. OTHERWISE...WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NO REAL CHANGES TO CURRENT EXTENDED
PACKAGE. EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH EARLY IN PERIOD IS REPLACED BY
UPPER RIDGE BY THE WEEKEND. GFS LONG RANGE GENERATES UPPER LOW
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOCATION WELL WEST OF HERE COULD OPEN UP
MORE GULF MOISTURE OR TROPICAL MOISTURE. FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR
AUGUST AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF MORE TROPICAL SYSTEMS
DEVELOP. BUT GFS LONG RANGE DOES BRING A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE THEY
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

CENTER OF CHARLEY OVER EASTERN NC. NO SIGNIFICANT WIND AT CAE OR
AGS. LOWER STRATUS DECK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING HAS DISSIPATED. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING ENOUGH HEATING
TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL CUMULUS. INSTABILITIES WEAK WITH BELOW
NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPS...PLUS SOME SUBSIDENCE ON BACK SIDE OF
CYCLONE...AND VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATIONS OF SOME DRY AIR ALOFT
ENTERING WESTERN HALF OF STATE. HOWEVER...SOME DIURNAL SH/TSRA
POSSIBLE...AND CURRENT RADAR INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS STRETCHING
FROM AIKEN COUNTY BACK TOWARDS AGS VICINITY...MOVING SLOWLY ENE.
UPPER ENERGY ALONG WITH MOISTURE PLUME AND SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY
STRETCHED ACROSS EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
VICINITY...TO SHIFT TO THE NE LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. IT
APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF MOISTURE/UPPER ENERGY TO REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA (FA)...BUT SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS MAY ENTER FA. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...THEREFORE
THERE IS SOME FOG POTENTIAL IF SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT
CONFIDENCE LOW DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS. MOS BULLETINS
INDICATING TREND TOWARDS SOME REDUCTION IN CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AT
CAE/AGS. BOTH ETA/GFS INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SE LOW LEVEL
FLOW LATE TONIGHT...A FAVORABLE FLOW FOR SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. MAY THROW IN A TEMPO GROUP.
&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
530 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-151000-
AIKEN SC-BAMBERG SC-BARNWELL SC-BURKE GA-CALHOUN SC-CHESTERFIELD SC-
CLARENDON SC-COLUMBIA GA-EDGEFIELD SC-FAIRFIELD SC-KERSHAW SC-
LANCASTER SC-LEE SC-LEXINGTON SC-LINCOLN GA-MCCORMICK SC-MCDUFFIE GA-
NEWBERRY SC-ORANGEBURG SC-RICHLAND SC-RICHMOND GA-SALUDA SC-
SUMTER SC-
530 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ENTER YOUR AREA HERE.

.DAY ONE...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY...
HURRICANE CHARLEY WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CAPE ROMAIN BY
LATE MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE INCH
WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES. THIS MAY CAUSE
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON CHARLEY...REFER TO
THE LATEST ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

LCV