Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
300 AM EST WED NOV 24 2004

.SHORT TERM...
STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT AREA TODAY/TONIGHT. UPPER TROUGH IN
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NOW LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. SURFACE LOW NOW
INTENSIFYING IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS EAST
FROM LOW CENTER ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA TO NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
INTO THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA/LOW COUNTRY SOUTH CAROLINA.
SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH INTO PIEDMONT AT THE MOMENT IN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT. CONVECTIVE LINE BACK IN ALABAMA/NORTH GEORGIA MOVING
VERY SLOWLY EAST.

MODELS INDICATE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...SO MOST IF NOT ALL OF CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AFTER 18Z. AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS THIS AFTERNOON
MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE AREA WILL INCREASE FROM GULF OF MEXICO.
MODELS ALSO SHOW MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING OVER AREA LATE
TODAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A MID LEVEL WARM LAYER EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN. LOW LEVEL JET
60 KT AT 850 MB. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE 200MB-300MB IMPRESSIVE BY
00Z. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT BY EVENING. LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT TOO STEEP BUT EXPECT WEAK INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE
LI -2 TO -4. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. STRAIGHT LINE WIND
DAMAGE APPEARS TO BE MAIN THREAT.

LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ON DETAILS. CATEGORICAL POPS
MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY 06Z CONVECTION MAINLY
EAST OF MIDLANDS....COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE. DRYING OUT
THANKSGIVING DAY...MAY SEE A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING.
COLD ADVECTION LOOKS STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY SO LOWERED MAXIMUM
TEMPS A BIT. COLD NIGHT ON TAP...POSSIBLY NEAR FREEZING AS COLD
HIGH PRESSURE AREA SETTLES OVER AREA. FRIDAY LOOKS COOL...TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO RISE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...
THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE AREA SHOULD HELP CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING BUT CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN MVFR
CEILINGS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG WIND GUSTS
COULD OCCUR WITH A FEW OF THE SHOWERS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLUMBIA     73  56  63  34 /  80  90  10   0
AUGUSTA      73  55  62  33 /  80  90  10   0
SUMTER       73  57  63  33 /  80  90  10   0
ORANGEBURG   74  57  64  34 /  80  90  10   0
&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

AWP
AVIATION...RJL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1005 AM EST WED NOV 24 2004

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-251000-
AIKEN SC-BAMBERG SC-BARNWELL SC-BURKE GA-CALHOUN SC-CHESTERFIELD SC-
CLARENDON SC-COLUMBIA GA-EDGEFIELD SC-FAIRFIELD SC-KERSHAW SC-
LANCASTER SC-LEE SC-LEXINGTON SC-LINCOLN GA-MCCORMICK SC-MCDUFFIE GA-
NEWBERRY SC-ORANGEBURG SC-RICHLAND SC-RICHMOND GA-SALUDA SC-
SUMTER SC-
1005 AM EST WED NOV 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH...AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND ONE HALF INCH. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH
WITH A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE ALONG WITH RAINFALL UP TO TWO INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY.
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE
PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RCC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
943 AM EST WED NOV 24 2004

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-241800-
AIKEN SC-BAMBERG SC-BARNWELL SC-BURKE GA-CALHOUN SC-CHESTERFIELD SC-
CLARENDON SC-COLUMBIA GA-EDGEFIELD SC-FAIRFIELD SC-KERSHAW SC-
LANCASTER SC-LEE SC-LEXINGTON SC-LINCOLN GA-MCCORMICK SC-MCDUFFIE GA-
NEWBERRY SC-ORANGEBURG SC-RICHLAND SC-RICHMOND GA-SALUDA SC-
SUMTER SC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AIKEN...AUGUSTA...BISHOPVILLE...CAMDEN...
COLUMBIA...LANCASTER...LEXINGTON...MANNING...NEWBERRY...ORANGEBURG...
SUMTER AND WAYNESBORO
943 AM EST WED NOV 24 2004

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH...AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND ONE HALF INCH. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH
WITH A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE ALONG WITH RAINFALL UP TO TWO INCHES.
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE SAVANNAH RIVER AREA DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD TO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON. THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND VERY STRONG WINDS IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO ALL HAZARDS...COMMERCIAL RADIO...TV OR YOURLOCAL NEWS SOURCE
FOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND SPOTTER
GROUPS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED
FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RCC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1130 AM EST WED NOV 24 2004

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ018-025-030-241745-

AIKEN-BURKE-COLUMBIA-EDGEFIELD-LINCOLN-MCCORMICK-MCDUFFIE-RICHMOND-
1121 AM EST WED NOV 24 2004

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
BURKE...RICHMOND...MCDUFFIE...COLUMBIA...LINCOLN...MCCORMICK
...EDGEFIELD AND SOUTHERN AIKEN COUNTIES BETWEEN 1230 AND 2 PM EST...

AT 1130 AM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL GEORGIA MOVING RAPIDLY
EASTWARD AT 45 MPH. WINDS AND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE WINDS TO 60 MPH
WHICH WILL TAKE DOWN TREES AND POWERLINES.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CSRA AND MIDLANDS OF
SOUTH CAROLINA UNTIL 5 PM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
116 PM EST WED NOV 24 2004

SCZ020-025-026-241945-
EDGEFIELD-NEWBERRY-SALUDA-
116 PM EST WED NOV 24 2004

...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NEWBERRY
COUNTY...SALUDA COUNTY AND EDGEFIELD COUNTY THROUGH 245 PM EST...

AT 116 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 16 MILES WEST OF
EDGEFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND
EDGEFIELD...TRENTON...JOHNSTON...WARD...RIDGE
SPRING...SALUDA...CHAPPELLS...SILVERSTREET...PROSPERITY AND NEWBERRY
THROUGH 245 PM EST.

GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN.

RCC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
235 PM EST WED NOV 24 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0223 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MCCORMICK               33.91N 82.29W
11/24/2004                   MCCORMICK          SC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWN IN CITY OF MCCORMICK.

0223 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MCCORMICK               33.91N 82.29W
11/24/2004                   MCCORMICK          SC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWN IN CITY OF MCCORMICK.

0217 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NE SALUDA             34.06N 81.70W
11/24/2004                   SALUDA             SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            POWER LINES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 1 NE OF SALUDA.

&&

DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
253 PM EST WED NOV 24 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1243 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LINCOLNTON              33.79N 82.48W
11/24/2004                   LINCOLN            GA   POST OFFICE

            TREES DOWN NEAR THE TOWN OF AMITY.

1244 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 N THOMSON             33.60N 82.50W
11/24/2004  0 MPH            MCDUFFIE           GA   POST OFFICE

            POWER LINES AND TREES DOWN IN RAYSVILLE.

1253 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 NE EVANS             33.62N 82.02W
11/24/2004                   EDGEFIELD          SC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            LARGE BRANCHES DOWN IN THE TOWN OF LEAH.

0215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEXINGTON               33.99N 81.23W
11/24/2004                   LEXINGTON          SC   AMATEUR RADIO

            POWER OUTAGES IN LOCAL AREA AROUND CITY OF LEXINGTON.

&&

DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
303 PM EST WED NOV 24 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1253 PM     TSTM WND GST     15 NNW GROVETOWN        33.65N 82.30W
11/24/2004  0 MPH            COLUMBIA           GA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            LARGE BRANCHES DOWN IN THE TOWN OF LEAH.

0237 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEWBERRY                34.28N 81.61W
11/24/2004                   NEWBERRY           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LIMBS AND STREET LIGHT BLOWN DOWN IN CITY OF NEWBERRY.

&&

DS