Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Billings, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
532 PM MDT SAT JUL 10 2004

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

UPDATE TO ZFP AND AFP TO REMOVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FROM WESTERN
ZONES AND TO ADD NEW WATCH TO EASTERN ZONES. ARTHUR

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING INTO WESTERN FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AFTER INITIATING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW MT. 19Z MSAS
INDICATED THETA E RIDGING OVER ENTIRE AREA. HIGHEST SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WERE IN 50S AND 60S OVER E ZONES WHERE E FLOW WAS BRINGING MOISTURE
INTO AREA. IT WAS MOST UNSTABLE OVER THE E WHERE CAPES WERE BETWEEN
1500 AND 2000 J/KG AND LI/S WERE BETWEEN -4 AND -6 DEG C. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH JUST ISSUED FOR WESTERN ZONES AS THEY WILL BE ON
THE EDGE OF INCREASING SHEAR. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EAST AS
WELL.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AREA TONIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO W ZONES. SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE E IN MOIST
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. RAISED MIN TEMPS IN SE DUE TO PRESENCE OF THERMAL
RIDGE AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NE SUN MORNING. MODELS DIFFERED ON TRACKS OF SHORTWAVES MOVING NE
THROUGH THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON SO OPTED NOT TO CHANGE POPS.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN SE SUN NIGHT NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY
AND LOW. CONTINUED LOW POPS OVER S MON THROUGH MON EVE DUE TO WEAK
WAVES IN SW FLOW ALOFT. RIDGE WILL BUILD N INTO REGION LATE MON NIGHT.
TEMPS FOR REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD LOOKED FINE. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH IT APPEARING THAT
IT OPENS UP TO MONSOONAL FLOW AROUND MIDWEEK. BIGGEST CONCERN IS THAT
GFS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IS ACCELERATING THE MOISTENING OF THE AIRMASS
AND THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS A COUPLE OF DAYS LATER THAN
FORECAST. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES AS MODEL CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO
BE STRONG...WITH A FEW CHANGES LATE IN THE VERY LONG RANGE. THE NEW
GFS IS TRENDING AWAY FROM THE MONSTER EASTERN PACIFIC LOW SOLUTION FROM
YESTERDAYS 00Z RUN BUT RATHER DAMPENING THE RIDGE A BIT MORE WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVES. FOR THE MOST PART...LOTS OF 90S WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY STARTING AROUND MIDWEEK. BORSUM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 067/091 059/089 060/092 062/092 062/093 063/091 060/089
    22/T    02/T    22/T    20/B    00/U    00/U    00/B
LVM 050/086 047/085 052/089 053/089 053/091 053/089 053/087
    32/T    00/B    22/T    20/B    00/U    00/U    00/U
HDN 064/091 059/090 059/092 060/093 060/093 060/091 060/089
    22/T    20/B    02/T    20/B    00/U    00/B    00/B
MLS 067/091 061/091 061/093 063/092 063/092 064/090 061/088
    42/T    20/B    02/T    20/U    00/B    02/T    20/B
4BQ 068/095 058/089 059/090 060/089 060/089 060/088 060/086
    32/T    22/T    22/T    20/B    00/B    00/B    00/B
BHK 064/090 058/087 057/089 059/087 059/089 061/088 061/086
    42/T    20/B    02/T    20/B    00/B    02/T    20/B
SHR 067/094 055/092 054/094 058/091 058/094 060/092 060/090
    22/T    22/T    22/T    20/B    00/B    00/U    00/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR
MTZ030>033...MTZ036-037 AND MTZ058.
WY...NONE.

&&

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MTZ028-040>042-110015-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
535 PM MDT SAT JUL 10 2004

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 597 FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
   MONTANA HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 597 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR PARK...
SWEETGRASS...WHEATLAND...AND GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL
MONTANA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA.  THE
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER...ARE NO LONGER ANTICIPATED TO BECOME SEVERE.

CHB