Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Billings, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
208 PM MDT SAT JUN 26 2004

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...
STUBBORN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
THOUGH AN UPPER RIDGE DOES MAKE SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

COOL FRONT AND SHORTWAVE WORKING INTO THE FORECAST AREA A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN ANTICIPATED TODAY AND WILL LINGER POPS ACROSS ALL AREAS THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LIGHT PRIMARILY EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOR SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND COMBINED WITH
SOME CAPE AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO TRIGGER THUNDER MOSTLY
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THUNDER ELSEWHERE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION SO WILL LEAVE IT IN THE FORECAST.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST IN HANDLING AN UPPER RIDGE AND ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT
MOVES UP THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE. ETA
MODEL CONTINUES TO KEEP THE BEST ENERGY SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE THE GFS
MODEL BRINGS IT THROUGH THE AREA. WILL LEAN MORE WITH THE ETA SOLUTION
AS IT INITIALIZED BETTER WITH THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TODAY. AS A
RESULT WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT ON...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ZONES TOMORROW WHERE SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY DOES CREEP UP
INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE TRICKY AS WELL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH HOW FAR EAST THE THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS IN. GOING
FORECAST LIES IN THE VICINITY OF ALL THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS FROM THE
MODELS AND WILL LEAVE TEMPERATURES PRETTY MUCH ALONE. MACZKO

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
THE MODELS BASICALLY ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ESPECIALLY WITH THE
UPPER AIR FEATURES. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY WITH TIME. HOWEVER...DURING THE LATTER DAYS OF THE EXTENDED
OUTLOOK...GFS SUGGESTS SOMEWHAT OF A REBUILDING OF THE RIDGE AND A
RETROGRESSION OF IT. BOTH GFS AND CANADA APPEAR TO BE DRIER IN
PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES. ETA...AS FAR AS IT GOES...IS WETTER. HAVE
TENDED TO GO WITH THE ETA RUN AT FIRST AND PUT IN MORE PRECIPITATION
POSSIBILITIES OVER ABOUT THE WEST HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
BEYOND THAT...THE ONLY CHANGES MADE FOR PRECIPITATION WAS TO KEEP A
POSSIBILITY OF IT OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS ON THROUGH THE OUTLOOK.
THE WAY THINGS APPEAR TO ORIENT THEMSELVES ALOFT SUGGESTS THAT THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS MIGHT GET SOMETHING. DID SOME TINKERING WITH
WINDS...TEMPERATURES...AND DEW POINTS IN ORDER TO BLEND IN TO A BETTER
DEGREE. CHB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053/074 054/080 055/082 055/085 058/086 058/088 053/090
    30/B    00/B    02/T    20/B    00/B    00/B    00/B
LVM 046/073 045/080 048/079 049/082 050/083 049/083 047/084
    32/T    20/B    03/T    30/B    00/B    00/B    00/B
HDN 052/076 053/084 055/086 056/089 057/089 057/090 054/090
    20/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B
MLS 052/076 054/084 056/086 057/088 060/089 060/089 056/089
    20/U    00/U    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B
4BQ 051/076 051/084 057/085 058/087 057/088 056/088 056/088
    20/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    03/T    30/B    00/B
BHK 044/073 047/080 052/084 055/085 057/086 057/086 055/085
    20/U    00/U    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    01/B
SHR 047/073 048/079 051/083 051/085 052/086 052/086 049/086
    20/B    00/B    02/T    20/B    00/B    00/U    00/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&