Special Marine Warning 57, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
340 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AS EXPECTED...WITH DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND THE ADVANCE
OF A WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT/MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTO THE LOWER
LAKES REGION...SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS FIRED ACROSS THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...THE MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY IS FOUND ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES...WITH OTHER MORE ISOLATED CELLS
DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHEAST OF KBUF OFF OF THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY.
AS THE MAIN THETA-E RIDGE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY/FINGER LAKES/NORTH
COUNTRY...THEN SLOWLY WANE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE AREA UNTIL 8 PM...WHICH IS
REASONABLE GIVEN MID-LEVEL WINDS OF 35-45 KTS AND FREEZING LEVELS IN
THE 11-11.5 KFT RANGE.

ONCE THINGS QUIET DOWN LATER TONIGHT...THEY SHOULD REMAIN SO UNTIL
WED AFTERNOON...WHEN THE FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE/COLD POOL
ASSOCIATED WITH YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN PART
OF THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES RESULTS IN A
MODEST AMOUNT OF LIFT...AS WELL MODERATE INSTABILITY (CAPES AOA 500
J/KG) ACROSS AREAS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY WEST DURING THE COURSE OF
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH TDS STILL IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S...FEEL
THAT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT/INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AROUND TO
WARRANT CHC POPS FOR -SHRA/-TSRA FROM KROC WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC POPS INTO WED NIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE
TREKS EAST ACROSS THE AREA...GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. FOR THURSDAY...BOTH THE ETA/GFS DRY SLOT THE AREA BETWEEN
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC...WITH NO REAL LIFTING MECHANISM TO SPEAK OF. WITH
INSTABILITY ALMOST NIL ACCORDING TO EVEN THE OVERLY ROBUST ETA
BUFKIT PROFILES...WILL OPT TO CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT 20 POP IN
THE GRIDS/DRY FORECAST IN THE ZONES.

THEN FOR THU NT AND FRIDAY...BOTH THE ETA/GFS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE...AS WELL AS THE
REMNANTS OF BONNIE...UP ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
THE EAST COAST...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES...WITH THE ETA SLOWER/STRONGER/A
LITTLE FURTHER WEST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE MODELS OUT AT
DAY 3...ESPECIALLY WHEN TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THERES A TROPICAL
SYSTEM COMING INTO PLAY...WILL OPT AT THIS TIME TO FOLLOW THE
FASTER/WEAKER/MORE EASTERLY GFS...WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
OFFICIAL TPC/NHC FORECAST. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY BRING CHC POPS
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES THU NT AND FRIDAY AM...DIMINISHING THEM
FRI AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
THE GRIDS...OWING TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH
GRADUALLY FILLS...AND SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. NEXT
CHC OF PCPN DOESNT LOOK TO BE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...WHEN THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH AXIS (AND POSSIBLE REMNANTS OF CHARLEY?) IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH DUE TO CHANGES IN THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS..WILL NOT GO WITH ANYTHING
HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL PREVAIL, BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY BRIEFLY TO MVFR.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT, AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOG TO FORM MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
SKIES WILL BE SCATTERED AT TIMES WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
OCCASIONAL VFR CEILINGS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY WEST OF ROCHESTER.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...APB

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