Special Marine Warning 52, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1015 AM TUE JUL 20 2004

.UPDATE...
CLOUDS WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ARE BREAKING UP A BIT OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO BUT SHOULD BE REFORMING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WARMTH. WILL STAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NY AS MID LEVEL CAP ERODES AND TEMPS WARM TO THE 75-80
DEGREE RANGE.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY AS REINFORCEMENT FROM A SHORT WAVE ADVANCES FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.  THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
CLOSE AS SOUTHERN ONTARIO JUST EAST OF LAKE HURON AT THIS TIME.  WE
WILL BRING SCATTERED ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING AND TO EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.  GFS AND ETA
DIVERGE A BIT ON MOVING THE ACTIVITY OUT LATER TODAY WITH THE GFS
KEEPING THE THREAT IN A BIT LONGER.  WE WILL OPT TO GO WITH THE ETA
TIMING AND JUST KEEP A CHANCE IN FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
THIS EVENING.  AN UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS A LITTLE FLATTER THAN THE ETA.
AT ANY RATE IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY WARM DAY WEDNESDAY.  850 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO GO AS HIGHS AS 16-17C WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 80S.  A WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY.  CHANCE
POPS STILL LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH GFS MOS POPS FOR THURSDAY
ARE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL.

DEW POINTS WILL BE CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ON
THURSDAY.  IT WILL FEEL QUITE MUGGY...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG RANGE (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE IS PROMISED OVER THE WEEKEND AS STRONG OPEN
WAVE MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.  WE WILL HAVE TO HANG ONTO A
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION INTO FRIDAY BUT A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO PROVINCE AND LEAD TO A DRY PERIOD FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  NOT QUITE AS COOL AS THE LAST RUN OF THE
MODELS BUT A BIG DROP IN DEW POINTS LOOKS CERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...

LOOK FOR GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST AND BRIEFLY DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING BUT LOOK FOR HAZE AND PATCHY FOG
LOWERING VISIBILITIES LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEYS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

UPDATE...HIBBERT
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...SAGE
AVIATION...SFM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
508 AM EDT TUE JUL 20 2004

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-201106-
ALLEGANY-CATTARAUGUS-CHAUTAUQUA-GENESEE-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON-
MONROE-NIAGARA-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-ONTARIO-ORLEANS-OSWEGO-
SOUTHERN ERIE-WAYNE-WYOMING-
508 AM EDT TUE JUL 20 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO
CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER CASE):
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/BUF/

SAGE