Special Marine Warning 2, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1010 AM EDT SUN APR 18 2004

FORECAST UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING FOG, AND TO RAISE POPS TO 70% IN
THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO LAKE ONTARIO.  RADAR SHOWS A GOOD AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS BEARING DOWN ON THE AREA FROM ONTARIO.  WE HAVE ALSO
MENTIONED POSSIBLE STRONG GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL PER THE RECENT
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC.

THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

THIS MORNINGS FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON THE ETA AS GFS WAS SPORADIC
AND LATE COMING IN.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST TO EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AROUND
WATERTOWN BY 00Z

ETA PROFILES SHOW SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WITH CAPES AS HIGH AS 1800
WITH LOW CINS AT WHITESVILLE WITH LIS OF -7 ALONG WITH GOOD
SHEAR PROFILES WITH BRN AND HELICITY VALUES INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR
SVR TSTMS. AT THIS POINT WILL MENTION SLGT RISK IN HWO FOR AREAS
INDICATED BY SPC BUT SCT TRWS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THIS AFTN.

EXPECT WIND CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN WARM SW FLOW WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN. WILL KEEP CHC RW IN THE EVE THOUGH EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

WILL KEEP SCT SHWRS/TSTMS MONDAY WITH LINE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. FRONT GETS TO WNY BY 00Z AND
MOVES SE OF OUR FCST AREA BY 06Z. WILL KEEP CHC RW IN FOR THE EVE
THEN LOW LVL MOISTURE HANGS IN KEEP BULK OF AREA MSTLY CLDY.

TUESDAY LOOKS MSTLY SUNNY.

NO CHANGE TO LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.
AVIATION DISCUSSION...

MVFR CONDS GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS FOG
HAS VSBYS REDUCED TO 3-5SM ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND FINGER
LAKES. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO 11-3.9 SATELLITE SHOWS MORE DISTINCT
AREA OF FOG WITH VSBYS CURRENTLY BELOW HALF MILE AT KART. CONDS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR THIS MRNG AS FOG BURNS OFF BY 13Z. MCS ACROSS WISC AT
06Z WILL SLIDE EAST ALONG WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SRN WISC/MICH
WHICH WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTN. WITH
EXCEPTION OF KART, TAF FCSTS CONTAIN NO MENTION OF PCPN. MCS WILL
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES AREA AND A FEW SHOWERS OUT OF THE MID DECK
CANT BE RULED OUT KBUF-KIAG-KROC BETWEEN 11-14Z. FOLLOWING THE WARM
FRONT, WINDS SHIFT FROM E-SE TO THE SOUTHWEST ARND 00Z AND INCREASE
TO 15-20 KTS. SCT SHWRS AGAIN MAY DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR HOWEVER
GIVEN THE TAF LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE STABILIZING LAKE ERIE, PCPN
HAS BEEN LEFT OUT.  A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET (>65KTS AT 3KFT) DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY SO LLWS HAS BEEN ADDED TO
THE LATEST PORTION OF THE TAFS.
.BUF...NONE.

APB/JJP..PUBLIC
JML...AVIATION

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
505 AM EDT SUN APR 18 2004

NYZ001>003-010>014-019>021-085-181104-
ALLEGANY-CATTARAUGUS-CHAUTAUQUA-GENESEE-LIVINGSTON-MONROE-NIAGARA-
NORTHERN ERIE-ONTARIO-ORLEANS-SOUTHERN ERIE-WYOMING-
505 AM EDT SUN APR 18 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BUT A WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO
CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER CASE):
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/BUF/

NYZ004>008-181103-
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-WAYNE-
505 AM EDT SUN APR 18 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO
CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER CASE):
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/BUF/

JJP